Vitoria take on the visitors Flamengo in the round 19 match of Brazilian Serie A. The match will be played on Thursday, July 25th at Barradao (Salvador).
Vitória Bahia currently occupies a spot in the relegation zone. Teams fighting for survival often rely heavily on their home matches, so the "Lions of Barradão" will be pushing to the maximum against Flamengo, known as the "Vultures." In their last five games, only once did a match involving Vitória feature just one goal. Another game ended with a push on the Over 2 (2) bet, and the Over 2.5 bet was hit in the other three matches. On average, matches involving Vitória this season have seen about 2.7 goals per game. The team has shown they can score at home, as seen in recent wins over Internacional (2-1), Criciúma (2-1), and Atlético Mineiro (4-2). However, their defense has been shaky, managing to keep a clean sheet only twice in 18 Serie A games. I expect the visitors to contribute to a high-scoring game here as well. Vitória has some absences: defender Camutanga (5 games this season) and midfielder Siau Vinícius (7 games) are out. Additionally, Janderson (12 games, 1 goal) and Luan Santos (12 games) will miss the match due to yellow card suspensions. While these are losses, they aren't too critical.
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Only Allan, who is suspended for accumulating yellow cards (13 games), and Bruno Henrique (13 games, 4 goals) will miss the match. However, their top scorer Pedro (9 goals, 5 assists) is in excellent form, having been directly involved in goals in each of the last eight rounds: scoring in six games and providing assists in two others. The "Red and Blacks" have scored the most goals in the league this season but have also conceded more than once per 90 minutes. They prefer playing an open style of football, regardless of the opponent or venue. In five of their last six league matches, at least three goals have been scored, with one match ending with a push on the Over 2 (2) bet.
At first glance, the outcome of this match might seem obvious: the visitors are third in the table, while the hosts are fourth from the bottom, clearly marking them as favorites and underdogs, at least on paper. However, I'm hesitant to bet on the outcome. Yes, Flamengo should win, but they have only won 50% of their away games this season, and Vitória has looked relatively strong at home. Therefore, I'll opt for a neutral bet. Considering how both teams attack and defend, and how frequently they have scored and conceded recently, I expect at least 2-3 goals in this match. Flamengo's defense is far from perfect. Vitória is capable of scoring once or twice, and we can also expect accurate shots from the visitors, as they are the favorites. For a bit of safety, I'll go with the Over 2 (2) bet. Lastly, it's worth noting that in the last five head-to-head matches at Vitória's ground, these teams have combined for at least three goals each time.
Prediction for the match: Over 2.0 scored goals.
