Vitoria take on the visitors Cuiaba in the round 21 match of Brazilian Serie A. The match will be played on Saturday, August 3rd at Barradao (Salvador).
This battle between two teams in the relegation zone of Serie A promises to be an exciting match with plenty of goals. After all, who else would the league's bottom teams score against if not each other? I believe a bet on the away team scoring at least once is a solid pick at a reasonable odds. Vitória has been terrible in defense, conceding 32 goals in 20 league matches. They have allowed goals equally at home and away (16 each). Recently, they have performed worse at home in Serie A compared to their away matches. Vitória has not kept a clean sheet in any of their last ten home games and has managed just three clean sheets in 20 rounds. The already porous defense is further weakened by recent injuries. In late July, defender Bruno Uvini and midfielders Siao Vinicius, Luan Santos, and Jean Mota were injured and will miss the upcoming game. Additionally, Ricardo Andrade and Kamatanga are still out. The shocking away win over Palmeiras in the last round was the only match in their last eight league games where Vitória kept a clean sheet. However, that match took a lot of effort and emotion. The team has not managed to keep their goal untouched in consecutive games this season, and it is unlikely they will do so now.
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Cuiabá, despite being one of the league's bottom teams, has a decent attack and has scored 19 goals in 18 Serie A matches this season, averaging more than a goal per game. In their last ten rounds, "The Golden Ones" have failed to score in only two matches and in their last seven rounds, just once. These instances occurred in home games. Recently, Cuiabá has performed better away than at home, scoring in six consecutive away league matches. Not long ago, they played in Salvador, defeating local Bahia (2-1). Notably, both goals were scored by the team's top scorer, Paraguayan Pita. He is ready to score against another team from Bahia. Earlier, Cuiabá took points from current season leaders Flamengo (1-1). At the end of July, "The Golden Ones" scored in a home league match against Atlético Paranaense (though they lost 1-2) and in both matches of the Copa Sudamericana against Chilean Palestino (1-1, 1-2). As a result, the team was eliminated from the international tournament and can now focus all its efforts on Serie A. Cuiabá does not have significant injury problems. The only notable absence is forward Derik Lacerda, but he has scored just twice in 11 appearances this season and is a rotational player.
Apart from the goalless draw in the first round of this season, matches between these teams are generally high-scoring. In four out of five such games, Cuiabá has scored at least once against Vitória. I believe we will see plenty of goals again, with at least one coming from the visitors. Therefore, my bet is on Cuiabá to score over 0.5 goals. There are plenty of arguments in favor of this bet. First, Vitória's terrible defense averages about 1.5 goals conceded per game. Second, Cuiabá's decent attack, especially considering they are a bottom team, averages more than a goal per game. Third, Cuiabá has performed better away than at home this season. Fourth, in July, "The Golden Ones" scored in four out of five league matches, while Vitória kept just one clean sheet in their seven league matches during this period. Finally, we must consider the mentioned injury problems for "The Lions of Barra".
Prediction for the match: Cuiaba to score – yes.
