Vitoria Guimaraes take on the visitors Zrinjski in the first leg of the final round of UEFA Conference League qualification. The match will be played on Wednesday, August 21st at Estádio D. Afonso Henriques (Guimarães).
It's clear that Vitória, who have occupied 5th-7th place in Portugal over the last 5-10 years (often finishing just behind the top four of Porto, Sporting, Benfica, and Braga, and even taking 5th place last season), have intensified their preparations for this season, particularly for the Conference League qualification. Remembering their failure in 2022 (a loss to modest Hajduk), the dark-and-whites learned their lesson and started strong from the early stages of Conference League qualification. They overcame Malta’s Floriana (1-0, 4-0) and left no chance for the experienced Swiss side Zurich (2-0, 3-0). In the league, Guimarães also started with two consecutive 1-0 victories against Estoril and Arouca. They've maintained defensive balance and added sharpness in attack. So far, Rui Borges' men have won every match this season without conceding a single goal, and they are favorites against Bosnian side Zrinjski.
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Zrinjski made some noise last year in qualification, managing to reach the Conference League group stage, where apart from an impressive comeback from 0-3 to 4-3 at home against AZ, they couldn’t achieve much more. The Bosnians held their ground against more technically superior teams (such as a respectable 0-1 loss to Aston Villa in Birmingham in the final seconds and a 1-1 draw at home in the last group stage match), but still suffered two defeats to Legia, finishing last in the group. They gained some experience, although last season on the domestic front, the Mostar club lost the top spot in the championship to Borac, despite winning the cup, which sent them to the Conference League. They’ve already advanced through two qualifying rounds, defeating a strong Bulgarian side Botev (1-2, 2-0) and managing a comeback against Slovenian club Bravo (0-1, 3-1) away. However, Guimarães is a much tougher challenge for them.
So far this season, Guimarães hasn't conceded in six official matches (eight if you include friendlies), and against Zrinjski, who will likely have to look for rare opportunities to counterattack against such a technical and experienced side, they should maintain this trend. Vitória has been playing in a dominant manner at the start of the season, and at home, they should confidently take control of the game. Meanwhile, Mostar's team has mostly shown their strength on their own turf, and last season they lost all three of their away games in the Conference League group stage (against Legia, Villa, and AZ) without scoring any goals. Even against Botev, they only managed to score in the final moments. Guimarães seems capable of securing a 2-0 or 3-0 win on class alone, and more importantly, I believe they should be able to keep a clean sheet again, making this a solid bet at a good value.
Prediction for the match: Zrinjski to score – no.
