USA take on the visitors Canada in a Friendly International match. The match will be played on Saturday, September 7th at Children's Mercy Park (Kansas City, KS).
American football is highly developed here, but not the kind we're used to. The country also has a special love for hockey, as the USA is home to the strongest league in the world (NHL). Yes, a lot of money is invested in MLS, and many football legends are invited, though they’re often older or players who are past their prime. Local talent development is mediocre at best, and the national team's performance is a clear reflection of that. At the Olympics, the hosts managed to make it out of the group by defeating Guinea and New Zealand, whose level leaves much to be desired, but they were then immediately crushed by Morocco in the playoffs (0-4). Individually, there are strong players like Pulisic, Reyna, Balogun, Musah, and Tillman, but a cohesive team has not been built from these talents. In the Copa America, the U.S. didn’t make it out of the group, losing to Panama and Uruguay. Notably, in their three matches, both goals scored and conceded totaled three, averaging exactly two goals per game. In the Gold Cup, they were eliminated in the semifinals, but they did win the CONCACAF Nations League by beating Mexico 2-0 in the final. Out of their last eight matches before the Olympics, six saw a total of under 2.5 goals.
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Yes, they made it to the 2022 World Cup, but suffered three straight defeats. They didn’t win the CONCACAF Nations League or the Gold Cup. However, in the Copa America, Canada finished in fourth place. In the group stage, the “Maple Leafs” scored just one goal but conceded only two. Why? Because Canada plays a 4-2-3-1 formation with a lone striker, who is often neutralized by the opposing center-backs. And why they switched to a 4-4-2 against Argentina twice without scoring a goal is a question for Jesse Marsch, who only recently took over as head coach. Under him, Canada has seen under 2.5 goals in six of their last seven matches. Even against France, they managed to keep a clean sheet with a 0-0 draw. Canada has talented players, not just Alphonso Davies. Some players are in top European leagues (Marseille, Fulham, Lille), but most play in domestic leagues or nearby competitions. Canada consistently takes many shots on goal, but most either go straight to the goalkeeper or miss the target entirely, posing little threat.
This is just a friendly, where different combinations will be tested, and we’re likely to see second-string lineups. Neither team has much reason to play at full strength. Recently, the USA has also leaned towards a more defensive style, playing on the counter. In 4 of the last 5, and 8 of the last 10 meetings between these teams, under 2.5 goals were recorded, meaning this happens 80% of the time. Historically, these teams play low-scoring games. Both squads are playing their first match after a break, so they’ll need time to get back into rhythm. Both teams are solid at defending set-pieces, rarely allowing threats near their goal. The U.S. seldom hits the over at home – only once in the last seven matches. I believe both teams will play disciplined, cautious defense with limited attacking motivation, so I suggest betting on under 2.5 goals.
Prediction for the match: Under 2.5 scored goals.
