Turkiye take on the visitors Montenegro in the round 3 match of UEFA Nations League group stage. The match will be played on Friday, October 11th at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadium (Samsun).
Turkey made a somewhat surprising coaching change a year ago—Kuntz resigned without waiting for a crisis moment. He was replaced by Montella, who had already worked in Turkey but with club teams. Montella quickly achieved success, securing early qualification for the Euros. At the tournament, Turkey showcased themselves as a somewhat inconsistent but exciting team, playing with maximum effort. Vincenzo’s squad not only advanced from their group but also eliminated Austria in the Round of 16. It was only in the next round that the Netherlands managed a comeback victory, with Muldur’s own goal being decisive. This fall, Turkey continued to show they are in form. In September, they played out a 0-0 draw in Cardiff against Wales, followed by a 3-1 win over Iceland in Izmir.
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Montenegro lived up to the skeptical expectations—they are the weakest team here. The "Brave Falcons" are the only part of the former Yugoslavia, aside from the recently FIFA-recognized Kosovars, that has never qualified for a major tournament. They failed to qualify for Euro 2024, although they had some chances this time. Serbia managed to surpass their close neighbors and won the battle for second place by 3 points. After this failure, Robert Prosinečki took over as head coach, but his tenure has been unimpressive. Both summer friendlies and, more importantly, the Nations League matches in September yielded no points: a 0-2 loss in Iceland and a 1-2 home defeat to Wales.
In 2016 and 2018, the teams played friendlies, with the "Janissaries" earning a draw and a loss. They repeated this in the previous World Cup qualifiers: a 2-2 home draw and a 2-1 away win for Turkey. Turkey is significantly stronger and playing at home. A logical bet would be on the hosts to win with a "-1.5 goals" handicap.
Prediction for the match: Turkiye to win with -1.6 handicap.
