Sudan take on the visitors Niger in a group stage match of qualification to African Cup of nations. The match will be played on Wednesday, September 4th at Juba Stadium (Juba).
Sudan is a solid national team by African football standards. They have shown decent results in the World Cup qualifiers, currently sitting at the top of their group, even ahead of Senegal by two points. On average, they have scored exactly two goals in their four qualifying matches (7 goals scored, 1 conceded). It's worth noting that Sudan rarely loses—6 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last 10 matches. While Sudan doesn't often surpass the over 2.5 goal total in friendlies (1-0 against Guinea-Bissau, 0-1 against Tanzania, 0-0 against Bangladesh), they are even less likely to do so in official matches. This team is fairly efficient in converting their chances but doesn't focus heavily on attacking. Sudan primarily operates on counterattacks, and the statistics from their last two matches prove this, where points were secured against South Sudan and Mauritania due to solid defensive play.
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Niger's football development has stagnated in recent years. Surprisingly, they managed to pull off a sensational win against Zambia in the World Cup qualifiers and also gained 3 points by non-sporting means, allowing them to share second place in their group with Tanzania. Recently, Niger has played very few friendlies, making it hard to assess their current form. Their main issue is their performance in away matches—before their win against Congo (3-0 by default), Niger had gone 20 away matches without a victory! At best, they would settle for a single goal and a 1-1 draw. Even looking at their overall statistics, Niger has very few wins. Why? Because they score very few goals. This is logical. Their last Africa Cup of Nations campaign was a disaster, with four consecutive losses (1-2 against Algeria, 0-1 against Algeria, 0-1 against Tanzania, 0-2 against Uganda). On the plus side, their defense is reliable, as Niger has only conceded more than one goal once in their last seven games (2 goals against Togo).
For the first time in several months, these teams will play an official match. The African Cup of Nations qualifiers are kicking off, and this is a prestigious tournament, so we can expect a classic cautious game with a focus on defense and a minimum of goals from the very first matches. It's important to note that Sudan is a strong home team. In their last 10 home matches, they have recorded 5 wins, 4 draws, and only 1 loss (0-1 against Tanzania). In half of these matches, Sudan didn't concede at all, and they only exceeded the over 2.5 goal total twice. A 1-0 or 1-1 scoreline is the classic result for them. We are unlikely to see many goals. Each team, if they score first, will likely try to lock down the game. Sudan rarely wins by a large margin, even against obvious underdogs. Niger is dreadful on the road, so it's possible they will focus on defending for a scoreless draw, leaving all the initiative to their opponents. I suggest betting on under 2.5 goals.
Prediction for the match: Under 2.5 scored goals.
