Slovakia take on the visitors Azerbaijan in the round 2 match of UEFA Nations League group stage. The match will be played on Sunday, September 8th at Košická futbalová aréna (Košice).
In the first round of the current Nations League campaign, Slovakia beat Estonia 1-0. However, the Baltic team is currently one of the weakest in Europe when it comes to attack, so they hardly had any chances to score. In the second match of the tournament, I wouldn't be surprised if the ball ends up in Dubravka's net. The main goalkeeper of the Slovak team hasn’t had any playing time at the start of the season, as he's been sitting on the bench for Newcastle in the first rounds of the Premier League. As for Slovakia's previous games before their meeting with Estonia, their defense was far from solid. They qualified for Euro 2024 but conceded in three of their four matches: against England (1-1), Romania (1-1), and Ukraine (1-2). They should have conceded against Belgium too, as we remember Lukaku and his team's incredible bad luck in front of goal. Not all of Slovakia's defenders are reliable. Yes, they have PSG star Škriniar and defenders from Wolfsburg and Feyenoord. But out of the six defensive players who took the field, aside from the stars mentioned, the others play for modest clubs like Cagliari and Al-Kholood in Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, the 37-year-old Peter Pekarík is currently without a club.
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Azerbaijan, while not seriously competing for major tournament spots yet, is steadily improving each year. Their defense still suffers due to the lack of quality players, but "Milli" knows how to attack. Yes, they only finished fourth in their Euro 2024 qualifying group, but they managed to score against solid opponents like Austria (1-4) and Sweden (3-0). After that, they scored in friendlies against Bulgaria (1-1), Albania (1-3), and Kazakhstan (3-2)—a team that neither Haaland, Sørloth, nor Ødegaard could break down just the other day. In the last Nations League campaign, Slovakia also conceded against Azerbaijan, but we'll get to that. In this current tournament, Fernando Santos' team lost to Sweden, but not without scoring (1-3). Based on xG, they actually created 2.96 expected goals against the Scandinavians, and they even missed a penalty. Even against stronger opponents, the Portuguese coach opts for a formation with at least two forwards. In the recent match against Sweden, he even fielded three strikers.
I agree with the bookmakers that Slovakia is the favorite in this match. But I’m hesitant to bet on a handicap for the hosts. I believe in a goal from the visitors, which is why I’m taking a bet on Azerbaijan to score over 0.5 goals (ITB2 0.5). It's worth noting that in the last head-to-head meeting between these teams, which took place in Slovakia, Azerbaijan won 2-1. I’m not sure about another victory for Azerbaijan this time, but at the very least, we should expect a goal from them after their frustrating home defeat. In their last ten matches across all competitions and friendlies, the Azerbaijani team has failed to score only twice. Azerbaijan has also found the net in seven of their last eight away games. Slovakia tends to play an attacking 4-3-3 formation against less prominent and top-tier opponents, often leaving space for counterattacks and struggling to get back in defense. This is exactly where the daring Azerbaijanis, who have recently scored against teams like Sweden, Albania, Austria, and Serbia, could strike at least once.
Prediction for the match: Azerbaijan to score – yes.
