Sao Paulo take on the visitors Gremio in the round 17 match of Brazilian Serie A. The match will be played on Thursday, July 18th at Estadio Do MorumBIS (Sao Paulo).
It seemed not too long ago that São Paulo was positioned somewhere near the middle of the Serie A table. However, four wins in the last five rounds have lifted the "Tricolor" to sixth place, now just six points away from first. In June and July, São Paulo defeated opponents such as Criciúma (2-1), Bahia (3-1), Atlético Paranaense (2-1), and Bragantino (2-0). I believe they will handle the crisis-ridden Grêmio on their home turf. Like almost all teams in the league at the moment, São Paulo has some personnel losses. Defender Alan Franco will miss the next match due to a red card, and defensive midfielder Luis Gustavo is out due to yellow card accumulation. But even without them, São Paulo should be able to overcome the "Musketeers," who are very weak right now.
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A year ago, the visiting side was the Serie A runner-up, but now they are in the relegation zone, third from the bottom. A significant factor in this situation is personnel losses. Forward André Henrique has been out since March, and Diego Costa since July. This has led to problems in attack, with only 10 goals scored in 14 rounds. There are also fresh losses - midfielder Franco Cristaldo is injured, and defender Walter Kannemann will miss the match due to a red card. Grêmio comes into the match against São Paulo with two consecutive league defeats: to Juventude (0-3) and Cruzeiro (0-2). In six away matches this season, Grêmio has managed only one draw.
In this match, I consider São Paulo the clear favorites. For the bet, I won't reinvent the wheel and will choose a home win (P1). Grêmio has been terrible this season, with nine losses in 14 Serie A rounds, and they hardly collect any points away from home. They are also tired from a cup match against Operário Ferroviário. The "Tricolor" are on the opposite end of the table in sixth place, having won four of their last five league matches. Additionally, the match will be played on their home field. Head-to-head statistics also support my prediction, as in recent years the team playing at home has been stronger in these matchups. Grêmio's last away game against São Paulo ended in a heavy defeat (0-3). I expect a victory for the hosts again, as they are currently much stronger than their opponents this season.
Prediction for the match: Sao Paulo to win.
