Sao Paulo take on Criciuma in the round 12 match of Brazilian Serie A. The match will be played on Friday, June 28th at Estadio Do MorumBIS (Sao Paulo).
At the end of last season, São Paulo finished somewhere in the middle of the championship table. They are roughly in the same position now, having played 11 matches in the current campaign. I won't argue with the bookmakers regarding their decision to consider the "Tricolor" as clear favorites in the battle against the "Tigers" (although there are grounds for it). Instead, I’ll focus on the fact that São Paulo concedes a little over one goal per game on average (13 goals conceded in 11 rounds). The team has also failed to keep a clean sheet in their last three matches: a draw in the derby with Corinthians (2-2) plus losses to Cuiabá (0-1) and Vasco da Gama (1-4).
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Criciúma, which played in the second division of the country last season, is currently performing not much worse than São Paulo (if at all worse). They are positioned very close to the hosts in the table. Yes, the "Tigers" lack experience in competing against Serie A opponents and a solid defense. However, they are not afraid to attack, which is a pleasant surprise at the start of the season. Regardless of match results, Criciúma has scored in all nine championship matches and is highly likely to score at least once against the "Tricolor." In away games, the "Tigers" have played only four so far: victories over Vasco da Gama (4-0) and Atlético-GO (2-1), a draw with Atlético Mineiro (1-1), and a loss to Atlético Paranaense (1-3).
Bookmakers have made the hosts clear favorites in this match. Is this a mistake? We shall see. In fact, São Paulo has not outperformed their opponent at the start of the season. The "Tricolor" have three more points in the bag, yes. But the "Tigers" have played two fewer matches in the league and are losing less frequently than their opponents so far. The key point is that Criciúma has not left the field without scoring in any match this season. Considering that São Paulo has kept a clean sheet only twice in the last seven rounds, we have every reason to expect at least one goal from the visitors. My prediction is a goal for Criciúma.
Prediction for the match: Criciuma to score – yes.
