Qarabag take on the visitors Shkendija in the second leg of UEFA Champions League semifinal round. First leg result: 1-0. The match will be played on Tuesday, August 12th at Tofiq Bahramov Stadium (Baku).
Qarabag have long made European competitions their priority. The "Steeds" have long since established their dominance at the level of Azerbaijan. True, once their monopoly was broken by Neftchi, but that was clearly an unfortunate exception. Moreover, in both Baku and Aghdam, the focus has long been on their performances on the international stage, with hopes of repeating the breakthrough into the UEFA Champions League group stage. The first step, at the end of last month, was a success. Already in Ireland, in the first leg, they scored three unanswered goals past their very first opponent — Shelbourne. A week later, when everything had already been decided, they were limited to only an own goal by Martin “into the dressing room,” right before halftime. Yet everyone, from Gurbanov down to the last fan, understood that much tougher rounds lay ahead. Qarabag are currently unbeaten in their last six matches in all competitions, showing solid defensive organisation and effective counter-attacks. Their recent form in Baku has been particularly impressive, with four consecutive home wins and an aggregate scoreline of 11-2.
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Shkendija are a fairly modest project that only began to make a name for itself in the era of independent North Macedonia. Even in such conditions of clearly limited competition, they only managed to win the championship four times. This spring, they reclaimed the title after a four-year break. That allowed them to enter the Champions League qualifiers, where they already faced a tough challenge in The New Saints — the tie was only decided by an own goal into the Welsh side’s net in extra time. Even more surprising was what came next, as the club managed to beat the experienced FCSB twice — after a narrow home win, they defeated their opponent 2-1 in Bucharest. Now, on their home ground, they conceded an early goal — Bayramov converted a penalty in the 18th minute. After that, their experienced opponent pragmatically held on to their advantage, securing a narrow victory. Despite the loss, Shkendija have shown resilience in away fixtures this season, having scored in five of their last six matches on the road. However, their defensive record remains shaky, with nine goals conceded in their previous four games.
The visitors from North Macedonia have rarely qualified for European competitions. So it is no surprise that they are now playing their very first matches against the Azerbaijani giants. The intrigue lies in how confidently the hosts will win. It is worth considering handicaps in the range of “-1.5” to “-2 goals.”
Prediction for the match: Qarabag to win with -2.0 handicap.
