Newcastle take on the visitors Qarabag in the second leg of UEFA Champions League round of 1/16-finals. First leg result: 6-1. The match will be played on Tuesday, February 24th at St. James' Park (Newcastle).
Newcastle United have generally improved under Howe as head coach. He has already lifted a trophy, even if it was the League Cup, and for the second time has led his side into the Champions League. Once again, as in the season before last, this has clearly affected their domestic results. Even in the League Cup, the holders were eliminated after losing twice in the semifinals to Manchester City, and in the Premier League it is obvious they will not repeat last spring’s fifth-place finish. On the other hand, this time they managed to reach the Champions League playoffs — four wins and 14 points were more than enough. However, the Black and Whites did not make the top eight, so they were forced to play already at this stage, with a long trip across the continent to the South Caucasus as well. Recently, Newcastle have looked more focused in European matches than in the league, often prioritizing results over spectacle. Their form in knockout-style games suggests a pragmatic approach aimed at progressing further here.
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Qarabag have already written a new achievement into their history. The Horsemen have firmly established themselves as the number one force in domestic football and earned a solid reputation in European competitions. Yes, their monopoly was once broken by Neftchi, and now Sabah are unexpectedly strong, but few doubt that the title will ultimately be defended. What had previously happened only once was successfully navigating the summer Champions League qualification. This time they not only dealt with Shelbourne and Shkendija, but also defeated the strong Ferencvaros. Moreover, in the autumn they started with wins — a comeback victory away and a confident home success over Copenhagen. Although defeats followed for the most part, this foundation, along with valuable home points against Chelsea (2–2) and Eintracht Frankfurt (3–2), finally allowed them to reach the playoffs. Hosting the British side in Baku, they collapsed in the first half, conceding heavily, and the match ended in a crushing 1–6 defeat with only a consolation goal. Despite that setback, Qarabag have shown they can compete at home and capitalize on momentum. Their recent European run already exceeds expectations and underlines meaningful progress.
Last week, the clubs played each other for the first time ever. We do not expect anything positive for the visitors — they are likely to suffer another heavy defeat. We take handicap -2.0 goals.
Prediction for the match: Newcastle to win with -2.0 handicap.
