Newcastle take on the visitors Arsenal in the round 10 match of English Premier League. The match will be played on Saturday, November 2nd at St. James' Park (Newcastle).
Last year, after reclaiming a Champions League spot, the team was hit by an injury crisis, which ultimately left them out of the top places. Currently, the injury situation is less severe, and Newcastle has bolstered their squad depth over the summer. Despite this, the team, known for its pinpoint pressing and solid defense, sits only in 12th place in the Premier League. Across 10 matches, the Magpies have scored 9 goals and conceded 10, largely playing a pragmatic style. With the close points spread in the standings, however, there’s still room for improvement. The key is their recent form: after two league losses to Brighton (0-1) and Chelsea at Stamford Bridge (1-2), they managed to beat Chelsea 2-0 in the League Cup at home. Rarely do Newcastle’s matches feature more than three goals; their last six games across various competitions have all seen under three goals scored. Against Arsenal, they’ll likely stick to their usual style, playing measured and avoiding an all-out approach.
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Arsenal has seen a major improvement with injuries over the past two weeks, with the injured list down to only recent signing Calafiori, long-term absentee Tomiyasu, and Kieran Tierney, while Odegaard, Zinchenko, and White are expected to be back in rotation. The "Gunners" drew 2-2 with Liverpool last league round, losing a two-goal lead at the Emirates in the second half, but after a 0-2 away loss to Bournemouth, they showed significantly stronger play. This midweek, they returned to winning form against Preston in the League Cup with a solid 3-0 away result, and now face a resilient, at times overly pragmatic, opponent.
I find it unlikely there will be four goals in this match. Newcastle’s style under Howe, with controlled pressing and solid defense, doesn’t suggest a high-scoring game, especially as Arsenal is still getting key players back and hasn’t yet reached full form. Moreover, St. James' Park has historically seen low-scoring games between these two sides. In fact, 6 of their last 7 head-to-head matchups have gone under 3 goals. Additionally, with this being each team’s third game in a week, including League Cup action, we can expect a slower pace, further supporting the choice for a low-scoring match.
Prediction for the match: Under 3.0 scored goals.
