Montenegro take on the visitors Wales in the round 2 match of UEFA Nations League group stage. The match will be played on Monday, September 9th at Podgorica City Stadium (Podgorica).
Montenegro performed decently in the Euro qualification, finishing ahead of Lithuania and Bulgaria. Realistically, the "Red Falcons" couldn’t expect much more. Over 8 matches, they secured 3 wins and 2 draws. On average, they scored exactly one goal per game, but that’s still not enough to achieve better results. There are some games that deserve praise for Montenegro—such as their 1-0 win over Bulgaria and 0-0 draw with Hungary. Their friendly matches were productive, as they played against weaker teams, teams at their level, and even Belgium. In 3 of their 4 friendly matches, the total goals were low. Clearly, they were focusing on defensive partnerships in preparation for the Nations League, often playing in a 4-2-3-1 formation. But how did they perform in the first round of the Nations League? Not well. They struggled in attack, leading to a 0-2 loss against Iceland. Overall, it was a fair result. They overloaded the midfield with a 4-5-1 formation, but their downfall came from the flanks. The left flank, in particular, with Radunović, could have played much better.
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In 4 matches, Wales scored 0 goals and lost twice. The most painful defeat, of course, was the penalty shootout loss to Poland, which cost them a spot at Euro 2024. It was a deserved outcome, as the team had already fallen behind Croatia and Turkey in the qualification group and even failed to beat Armenia in a crucial match (1-1). Wales started the Nations League quite well, and they deserved to win in their match against Turkey, generating an xG of 2, but their finishing has been a long-standing problem. It’s hard to believe they couldn’t score against Gibraltar, despite managing just 3 shots on target. In 7 of their last 8 away games, Wales has failed to surpass 2.5 goals. They’ve only won once (2-0 against Latvia). The support of local fans is a key factor for this team.
In conclusion, Wales is clearly the favorite. The visitors have a much more talented squad, with most of their players competing in the Premier League or other top European leagues. Montenegro, of course, cannot boast the same level. However, it’s worth noting that the weather forecast predicts heavy rain during the game, and I can already imagine the kind of tough battle that will unfold on the pitch. It will be a "kick and rush" type of game. If the hosts once again opt to play with 5 midfielders, it will be difficult to pass through the center. In 3 of Wales’ last 5 away games, they failed to score from open play, so I believe this match will be decided by a single goal. My pick is Under 2.5 goals.
Prediction for the match: Under 2.5 scored goals.
