Mainz take on the visitors Hamburger in the round 23 match of German Bundesliga. The match will be played on Friday, February 20th at Mewa Arena (Mainz).
Mainz, also surprised in 2024/2025, but back then in a positive way. They finally returned to European competitions, collecting enough points to finish in sixth place, and after Stuttgart won the cup they were sent to the Conference League, where they confirmed their level by reaching the playoffs as part of the top eight teams. However, domestically the campaign turned into a failure, with the club dropping into the relegation zone and exiting the cup already in autumn, which was taken calmly as there was no room to spread resources. Still, the team have shown more resilience recently, and their overall performances have become more competitive over the past weeks. At home they have started to look more organized and difficult to break down, which gives hope for a stronger finish to the season. In winter, the work of the new head coach Urs Fischer began to show results: the club started to collect points actively and even pick up wins. They managed to beat Augsburg in February, but then faced an opponent that was simply too strong in Borussia Dortmund and lost 0–2. Even in defeat, their structure looked more solid than earlier in the season, suggesting progress. Recent results indicate that Mainz are no longer an easy target, especially when playing on their own ground.
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Hamburg are finally back in the Bundesliga. Dinosaurs, once had the unique status of being the only club to take part in every single season of this division. After relegation, however, they got stuck in the second Bundesliga for years, with almost no real chances to return, except for one failed playoff attempt. It seemed that last season could also slip away, but this time they managed to finish among the top two and secure promotion. Their momentum from the end of last season has carried over to some extent, helping them adapt to the higher level. They look competitive in many matches, even if consistency remains an issue. Now the task is clear: to hold on to the positions they have fought so hard to regain. So far, the newcomers have not collapsed, but they have not been especially impressive either. Still, a 2–2 draw against Bayern was widely praised, and they managed to beat both Heidenheim and Union Berlin, taking maximum points. These recent results show that Hamburg can punish mistakes and compete physically. At the same time, their early exit from the cup on penalties against Holstein in December highlighted that stability is still a work in progress.
In six consecutive matches, wins for Mainz alternated with draws. But in October, when they finally met again, Hamburg produced a crushing 4–0 home victory. The home factor could be decisive here, so the pick is a win for the hosts.
Prediction for the match: Mainz to win.
