Italy take on the visitors Northern Ireland in semifinal match of FIFA World Cup promotion. The match will be played on Thursday, March 26th at New Balance Arena (Bergamo).
Italy have already missed several tournaments like this. Squadra Azzurra are one of football’s historic giants. Not so long ago, under Mancini, they even won Euro 2020. But before that they failed to qualify for the 2018 World Cup, losing in the playoffs to Sweden of all teams. Then, still under Roberto, they were beaten at home by modest North Macedonia in the next cycle. Last year, under Spalletti, they played at the Euros, where they struggled to get out of the group and then immediately lost to Switzerland. The Nations League campaign looked relatively encouraging, as they reached the playoffs and gave Germany a real fight a year ago — the Germans scored only one goal more over the two matches. But all the optimism disappeared already in the first round of last year’s qualification, when they lost 0-3 to Norway. Later, under Gattuso, they seemed to improve and put together a run of four straight wins. But in November the difference became obvious between beating teams like Estonia and Israel and competing with the Scandinavians — Norway produced a 4-1 away win. Even in recent matches, Italy have looked convincing mainly against sides below their level, while against stronger opposition the same old problems have quickly resurfaced.
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Northern Ireland Army are clearly not regarded here as a serious opponent. Over recent years, the only real success they can point to is Euro 2016 — and they even reached the playoffs there. Incidentally, O’Neill was also the manager back then. Now, with him again, they managed to make a splash in the Nations League: in 2024 they won a group featuring Bulgaria, Belarus, and Luxembourg. So even though the following qualifying cycle was mediocre (they finished behind not only Germany but also Slovakia, staying above only Luxembourg and collecting 9 points in 6 matches), they still earned the right to test themselves in the playoffs. Their recent results suggest they can stay competitive in stubborn, low-margin games, but they still struggle badly whenever the overall class gap becomes too noticeable.
The visitors from Belfast have won only one of the 8 meetings played, and that was back in 1958. The Squadra Azzurra have 5 wins, but in November 2021, in the most recent meeting — also in World Cup qualifying — the sides drew. It is hard to believe Gattuso’s team will run into serious problems here — they surely cannot keep making the same mistake over and over again. The bet is on the hosts with a -1.5 goal handicap.
Prediction for the match: Italy to win with -1.5 handicap.
