Italy take on the visitors France in the round 6 match of UEFA Nations League group stage. The match will be played on Sunday, November 17th at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (San Siro) (Milan).
Italy hopes to restore national pride. The "Azzurri," after their disastrous failure to qualify for the 2018 World Cup, experienced a resurgence under Roberto Mancini, culminating in their Euro 2020 victory. However, they quickly stumbled again, losing to Switzerland in the qualifiers and shockingly falling to North Macedonia in the World Cup playoffs. With Luciano Spalletti at the helm since last year, Italy managed to secure a direct spot at Euro 2024, edging out Ukraine only on tiebreakers. In Germany, their campaign was underwhelming. After conceding the fastest goal in tournament history, they narrowly beat Albania in the opener and salvaged a last-gasp draw against Croatia to reach the knockout stage, only to fall 0-2 to Switzerland in the Round of 16. The Nations League brought better results: a critical 3-1 away win over France in the first round, followed by victories over Israel and a hard-fought 1-0 triumph against Belgium last Thursday in Brussels, courtesy of a Tonali goal.
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France showed improvement at the recent Euros, reaching the semifinals and even taking the lead against eventual champions Spain, though they ultimately lost 1-2. Despite their attacking depth, the team struggled to score, especially with Kylian Mbappé sidelined due to injury. They advanced past Belgium in the Round of 16 thanks to a Vertonghen own goal and edged Portugal on penalties after a goalless draw. Autumn started poorly for France, with a 1-3 loss to Italy, but they recovered to defeat Belgium twice and secure a convincing 4-1 win over Israel. However, in the most recent round, they were held to a disappointing 0-0 draw against Israel at home in Paris, highlighting ongoing issues with offensive consistency, especially in the absence of Mbappé and Griezmann.
Between 2012 and 2018, France claimed three consecutive friendly wins over Italy. However, the dynamics shifted in competitive fixtures, with Italy dominating their Nations League clash in September with a decisive victory on French soil. Italy’s victory in Brussels against Belgium was an impressive demonstration of their defensive solidity and tactical discipline under Spalletti. France, on the other hand, has shown glimpses of resilience but remains inconsistent, especially against stronger opposition. Given Italy’s pragmatic approach and France’s struggle to find attacking rhythm, this match is likely to be a tightly contested affair. Expect the "Azzurri" to focus on defense to maintain their position, making Under 2.5 Goals a strong betting option. A 1-0 or 1-1 result seems the most plausible outcome.
Prediction for the match: Under 2.5 scored goals.
