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Hamburger vs St. Pauli Prediction 28 August 2025

Hamburger vs St. Pauli Prediction 28 August 2025

Hamburger take on the visitors St. Pauli in the round 2 match of German Bundesliga. The match will be played on Thursday, August 28th at Volksparkstadion (Hamburg).

Hamburg were never the biggest powerhouse in German football. Still, they had a unique ability to avoid relegation from the Bundesliga 1 — until the inevitable drop eventually came. What followed was a long struggle to climb back, as they consistently finished 4th, often agonizingly close to promotion. Only once did they even reach the playoff games, and that ended in failure. This spring it seemed like the same story would repeat, with Hamburg losing momentum late in the season. But this time they edged Elversberg by just a single point, 59 against 58, finishing second — and finally earned promotion back to the top tier. Strengthening their squad where possible (though selling Reis to Club Brugge), and bringing in Kocholeishvili on loan from Shakhtar, they kicked off the new season with a dramatic 2-1 comeback win over Pirmasens in the cup (equalizing in stoppage time before sealing it in extra-time), followed by a goalless draw away against Borussia Mönchengladbach. Hamburg have shown solid defensive organization so far, which gives them confidence heading into the derby. The supporters, who waited years for Bundesliga football to return, are creating an electric atmosphere that could become a decisive factor.

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St. Pauli will try to perform no worse than last season. The “League Pirates” have often lived in the shadow of their famous city rivals. But they earned promotion from the second division in 2024, finishing in first place. Unlike their brief 2010/11 stint, this time under coach Blessin they managed to stay up, securing 14th place in the Bundesliga. Interestingly, they achieved survival despite recording only 32 points across 34 matches. After the summer break, they began with a tricky cup tie, struggling against modest Eintracht Norderstedt and only advancing after a penalty shootout. In the Bundesliga opener, they faced Borussia Dortmund, and despite trailing by two goals late in the match, they managed to salvage a dramatic draw. St. Pauli have shown resilience and fighting spirit, which makes them a tough opponent even against stronger sides. Their ability to grab points in difficult moments could play a crucial role in this season’s campaign.

Hamburg have won 3 of the last 5 derbies, losing only once. In fact, in May of last year on this same pitch, they claimed a narrow 1-0 victory. The hosts are seen as the favorites. However, the visitors have enough strengths of their own — the bet is on St. Pauli not to lose this derby.

Prediction for the match: St. Pauli not to lose (X2).

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Sam Wilson
Sports tipster