Greece take on the visitors Finland in the round 1 match of UEFA Nations League group stage. The match will be played on Saturday, September 7th at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium (Piraeus).
Greece had every chance to qualify for the Euros, but fell to Georgia in a penalty shootout. The hosts were placed in a tough group with the Netherlands and France, but they managed to hold the latter to a 2-2 draw at home. At home, the "Hellenes" are nearly unbeatable—only 1 loss in 3 years (0-1 to the Netherlands, and a painful penalty conceded in the 93rd minute). They've also had just two draws, with the rest being victories—about ten in total. In three of their last four home matches, Greece hasn't even conceded a goal. They have a very strong generation of players, including Bouchalakis, Bakasetas, Mavropanos, and others. Against strong teams, the Greeks typically play a 3-5-2 formation, but against weaker opponents, they switch to a more attacking 4-3-3, often leading to blowouts—5-0 against Kazakhstan, 3-0 against Cyprus, 5-0 against Gibraltar, and 3-1 against Northern Ireland.
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Finland has many players within decent European leagues, but most of them lack significant playing time. Their biggest problem is playing away from home—just 3 wins in their last 11 away games. They barely scraped a 2-1 win against semi-professionals from San Marino, managing only 5 shots on target. Finland has conceded in five straight matches, and often by large margins—4 goals against Portugal, 2 against Scotland, 4 against Wales. Their 4-3-3 formation against Portugal was a clear tactical mistake. Finland's major weakness lies in defending set-pieces, where they concede too often. Though the Finns are known as a tough, battle-hardened people who should dominate aerial duels, the stats tell a different story. Until they sort out their defensive issues, positive results will remain elusive.
With teams like England involved, points need to be secured from the very first game. Many experts see Greece as the favorites here, and I agree. Especially at home, Greece should be expected to beat Finland, who may struggle with the heat, a stark contrast to the cooler, more humid conditions they’re used to in Finland. The visitors have just 1 win in their last 4 games, and they haven’t beaten a solid opponent on the road in over a year—San Marino doesn’t really count. Even when comparing the domestic leagues, for Finland, having a club (HJK) qualify for the Conference League group stage is a celebration, while Greek clubs (PAOK, Panathinaikos, Olympiacos, AEK) are well-known and regularly perform well in European competitions. I won't overcomplicate things—back the home team for the win, especially since Greece were the stronger side in their last head-to-head match.
Prediction for the match: Greece to win.
