Germany take on the visitors Bosnia & Herzegovina in the round 5 match of UEFA Nations League group stage. The match will be played on Saturday, November 16th at Europa-Park Stadion (Freiburg).
Germany underwent a remarkable transformation under Julian Nagelsmann, who took over just over a year ago. Hansi Flick, his predecessor, left behind a struggling team and was dismissed in the fall of 2023, marking a historic first for German football. While Nagelsmann’s start in 2023 wasn’t ideal, the setbacks were limited to friendly matches. Germany found its stride in the "home" Euro 2024, playing dynamic football and delivering strong results. Only an exceptional Spanish side managed to eliminate them, and that too in extra time. In the Nations League, Germany has already secured a playoff spot and is now focused on maintaining their position at the top of the group. Apart from a draw against the Netherlands, all other matches have resulted in victories, showcasing their consistency and improvement.
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Bosnia struggles to compete at this level. The “Dragons” have only appeared in one World Cup and have struggled to leave a mark at the international level. Hopes of reaching the last Euro were dashed in the playoffs, where they suffered a disappointing 1-2 home defeat to Ukraine in March. This led to the appointment of former striker Sergej Barbarez as head coach, replacing Savo Milošević. However, the coaching change has not significantly improved their fortunes. As winners of their group in League B last cycle, Bosnia earned promotion to the top tier. Unfortunately, they’ve failed to adapt, managing only a goalless draw against Hungary on the road, while losing all other matches. Even if they secure a point against Germany, Edin Džeko and his teammates are destined to finish at the bottom of their group.
Prior to their 1-2 loss in October, Bosnia had faced Germany twice. In 2002, they held the Germans to a 1-1 draw at home, but eight years later, Germany claimed a 3-1 victory. Germany is firing on all cylinders under Nagelsmann, with their youthful and attacking squad finding rhythm. They’ve shown resilience against top-tier teams and delivered dominant performances in the Nations League. Bosnia, on the other hand, has looked outclassed in the elite division and continues to struggle for stability, with an aging core of players unable to consistently compete against higher-ranked opponents. The only question seems to be how dominant the Germans will be. Playing at home, Germany is expected to control the game from start to finish. A bet on a decisive win with a handicap of "-2.0 goals" looks like a solid choice. The likely scoreline could be a commanding 3-0 or 4-1 in favor of Germany.
Prediction for the match: Germany to win with -2.0 handicap.
