Fortaleza take on the visitors Atletico Mineiro in the round 30 match of Brazilian Serie A. The match will be played on Thursday, October 17th at Castelão (Fortaleza).
With 29 rounds of the championship already behind them, the "Lions" remain among the league leaders. The team currently sits in third place, just two points behind second-place Palmeiras and only five points away from league leaders Botafogo. The battle for medals, and perhaps even the championship title, is still ahead. Fortaleza is no longer participating in any other tournaments, allowing them to fully focus on Serie A. While the "Lions" have been inconsistent in away matches, they boast the best home record in the league: 13 wins, 2 draws, and no losses, with a goal difference of 25-7. Recent home victories include wins over Cuiabá (1-0), Corinthians (1-0), São Paulo (1-0), and Bahia (4-1). Like every Serie A team, Fortaleza has some injury concerns: defender Santos and midfielder Lucas Sasha are out, while defender Mancuso will miss the match against Atlético Mineiro due to a red card suspension.
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Atlético Mineiro has more significant squad issues. Midfielder Matías Zaracho and winger Alisson are still injured. In September, winger Bernard and center forward Cadu joined the injury list, and in October, defender Arana suffered a serious hip injury. In the national championship, Atlético has been inconsistent, alternating between good and poor performances. They currently sit in ninth place in the standings. While they are capable of competing for a top-6 spot and qualifying for the Copa Libertadores, it’s unlikely they can aim for anything more this season. While home matches are Fortaleza’s biggest strength, Atlético has become vulnerable on the road. In their last five away matches in Serie A, they've lost three times: to Criciúma (1-2), Palmeiras (1-2), and Bahia (0-3). The team is being carried by 39-year-old Hulk. Moreover, Atlético has been dealing with a packed schedule, playing nine matches across all competitions (Serie A, Copa Libertadores, and the national cup) since September 13, with matches every three days on average. Fatigue is a significant factor when considering the upcoming league fixtures.
In this match, I favor the home team and recommend betting on a Fortaleza win. While the hosts are fighting for top positions, the visitors are closer to the middle of the table. The gap between the two teams is a substantial 15 points. This season, Fortaleza and Atlético Mineiro are on different levels in terms of both quality and ambition. The home-field advantage is on Fortaleza's side. They have been exceptional at home, winning 80% of their matches. Meanwhile, Atlético has lost every third away game this season. Atlético Mineiro has more and more serious squad losses. Fatigue factor: Fortaleza is fully focused on Serie A, while Atlético’s players are stretched thin across three competitions, having to manage their energy across multiple fronts. Lastly, head-to-head encounters show mixed results, but the last meeting at Fortaleza’s home ended in a win for the hosts (2-1).
Prediction for the match: Fortaleza to win.
