Fluminense take on the visitors Palmeiras in the round 19 match of Brazilian Serie A. The match will be played on Thursday, July 25th at Maracanã (Rio de Janeiro).
Fluminense is not living up to one of its nicknames this season; the players from Rio are far from resembling the "team of warriors." With ten losses in 17 league rounds, they are currently in second-to-last place. They only managed to climb off the bottom thanks to a win over modest Cuiabá in the last round (1-0). Notably, this was only the second victory for a team that finished in the top seven in Serie A just a year ago. Fluminense has been woeful in attack, scoring only 13 goals in 17 league matches. A significant factor in these results is the team’s ongoing injury issues, often affecting key players. Lelé has been out with a knee injury since spring. In June, three defenders—Manuel, Felipe Melo, and Calegari—were sidelined with injuries. Attacking midfielders Lima (10 matches, 2 goals) and David Terans (7 matches) are also out with hamstring and shinbone injuries, respectively. Brazilian star Marcelo (10 games, 1 goal and 1 assist), a Real Madrid legend, is out with a thigh injury. The depth of Fluminense's squad is already limited, and they will also be without defender Guga, who was sent off in the last game. It's no surprise that most of their matches end under 2.5 goals.
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Palmeiras, on the other hand, is at the opposite end of the table, on second place, trailing only league leaders Botafogo by three points. While the hosts of the upcoming match average less than a goal per game, Palmeiras's defense has been strong, with their goalkeeper conceding just 0.6-0.7 goals per game. The defending champions have kept nine clean sheets this season. However, they have also left the field without scoring in some games, indicating that Palmeiras, despite their high position, doesn't always play perfectly. Injuries have also plagued this team from São Paulo, with wingers Lázaro (10 matches, 2 goals) and Estevão (17 matches, 5 goals and 4 assists) sidelined. Two rounds ago, Uruguayan starter Joaquín Piquerez (16 matches, 2 goals) joined them. Midfielder Richard Ríos (7 matches, 1 goal) has returned from national duty but may not be ready to jump back into Serie A action immediately. In three of their last four matches, Palmeiras has played under 2.5 goals: wins against Cruzeiro (2-0) and Bahia (2-0), and a loss to Botafogo (0-1).
Even the bookmakers offer odds over 2.00 for a Palmeiras win in this Rio de Janeiro vs. São Paulo clash. Palmeiras hasn't been at their best away from home, winning only 50% of their away league matches, and have picked up just one point from their last three away games, failing to score in two of them. Palmeiras has played under 2.5 goals in 11 of their 18 matches, while Fluminense has done so in 10 of 17 matches. As you can see, both teams tend to play low-scoring games more often than not. There's nothing extraordinary if the "team of warriors" and "piglets" combine for fewer than three goals in this head-to-head. The hosts have played under 2.5 goals in nine of their last ten league matches. Additionally, this bet has hit in three of the last four head-to-head encounters. Both teams have significant personnel issues. My prediction is under 2.5 goals.
Prediction for the match: Under 2.5 scored goals.
