Fluminense take on the visitors Bahia in the round 21 match of Brazilian Serie A. The match will be played on Sunday, August 4th at Maracanã (Rio de Janeiro).
Due to a poor start to the season, Fluminense is still in the lower part of the Brazilian Championship table (second to last), although the team has won three consecutive matches with the same score of 1-0, sequentially defeating Cuiabá, Palmeiras, and Bragantino. As for the Under 2.5 goals bet, it has been successful in the last ten Serie A matches involving the "Warriors." However, their goal-scoring remains low. In 19 rounds, "Big Flu" has only scored 15 times. Specifically, in home matches, they have played under 2.5 goals in four consecutive league matches. The team's low scoring rate is largely due to numerous injuries, most of which are among the attacking players. Lelé and Felipe Melo have been long-term absentees, and in July, Tíranos, Isaac, and Germán Cano joined them. The latter, a regular starter, has played 15 matches and scored 2 goals in the championship.
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Continuing on the topic of injuries, it's worth mentioning the problems the visiting team will face. Midfielder Nicolás Acevedo has been out with a cruciate ligament injury since December, and recently (in late July), Cicinho (6 matches this season), Rezende (15 matches), and Ademir (17 matches, 1 goal and 1 assist) joined the injury list. Besides dealing with injuries, Bahia's top scorers this season are also experiencing a slump. Forward Everaldo (6 goals and 1 assist) has been silent in all competitions for five matches in a row, and another attacker, Aragaás (4 goals and 4 assists), has only one contribution in that period. In terms of performance this season, the "Tricolors" are fairly good, currently sitting in the top 7 of the table. However, their away results are significantly worse than their home performances. Recently, even at home, Bahia has been struggling. They haven't won in four consecutive rounds, and in three of those matches, the Under 2.5 goals bet has been successful: draws with Internacional (1-1) and Atlético-GO (1-1) and a loss to Corinthians (0-1).
Midweek, both teams had matches in the Brazilian Cup. Fluminense lost in an action-packed away game against Juventude (2-3), while Bahia drew 1-1 with Botafogo in Rio de Janeiro. Players from both teams will approach their Serie A match in a tired state, having not fully recovered. Consequently, I don't expect many goals in the head-to-head encounter between the "Warriors" and the "Tricolors," as it is very difficult to play high-scoring games in a tight schedule. Judging by the recent results of the national championship matches, Fluminense and Bahia have rarely surpassed the Over 2.5 goals mark in their games. Bahia performs noticeably worse on the road this season compared to home, so Fluminense will likely set the pace for the upcoming match. The Rio team tends to play low-scoring matches, having gone Under 2.5 goals in 12 out of 19 rounds. In their head-to-head meetings, the Under 2.5 goals bet has been more successful than not, hitting in six of the last eight matches between Fluminense and Bahia. Adding to all the existing arguments is the number of injured players on both sides, making a low total bet quite safe.
Prediction for the match: Under 2.5 scored goals.
