Fluminense take on the visitors Alianza Lima in the round 6 match of Cop Libertadores group stage. The match will be played on Thursday, May 30th at Maracanã (Rio de Janeiro).
The Warrior Team from Rio performed excellently in the group stage of the current season's CL. They secured three wins, drew two matches, and as a result, ensured their place in the playoffs from first place ahead of time. The final round holds no real significance for the Brazilians. However, in Serie A, Big Flu are having a terrible time, currently sitting fourth from the bottom of the table. This is where they need to focus all their efforts, at least until the CL playoffs begin. I think if the Brazilians do beat the Peruvians in the upcoming match, it will only be by a one-goal margin. In all five previous group stage matches, the handicap (+1.5) on Fluminense's opponents was covered comfortably: wins over Colo-Colo (2-1 and 1-0), Cerro Porteño (2-1), and draws in another match with Cerro Porteño (0-0) and with Alianza Lima (1-1).
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Alianza Lima are in fourth place but has chances not only for third place and a spot in the South American Cup but also for a CL playoff spot. To achieve this maximum goal, the Peruvians need to win in Brazil and hope for a draw in the Colo-Colo vs. Cerro Porteño match. In any case, I expect Alianza Lima to put up worthy resistance against an unmotivated Fluminense. In the group stage, the team only lost once – to the aforementioned Cerro Porteño (0-1). In the other four matches, the Peruvian representatives secured draws: 0-0 and 1-1 with Colo-Colo, 1-1 with Cerro Porteño, and 1-1 with Fluminense.
Bookmakers have made the hosts clear favorites in this match, but do the Brazilians need this win? Considering that no one can take first place in the group from them and it would be wise to conserve strength for the upcoming Serie A matches, where the Warriors are currently in the relegation zone. Of course, Fluminense will not deliberately lose an international match, especially on their home turf. But they are also unlikely to exert themselves just to score a bunch of goals in a meaningless game. Even when motivated, the Brazilians haven't won by more than one goal in their last five group stage matches. I'm taking the (+1.5) handicap on the team called Alianza Lima, as this bet has won in all five of their matches in the current tournament. By the way, the Peruvians drew 1-1 with Fluminense in the first leg.
Prediction for the match: Alianza Lima to win with +1.5 handicap.
