Flamengo take on the visitors Bahia in the second leg of Copa do Brazil quarterfinals. The First leg result: 1-0. The match will be played on Friday, September 13th at Maracanã (Rio de Janeiro).
Flamengo won the first leg of the quarterfinals in the domestic cup, is progressing through the knockout stages of the Copa Libertadores, and sits in fourth place in the Serie A standings. However, the "Vultures'" defense is far from perfect. In their most recent match in the Libertadores, they lost to Bolivia’s Bolivar (0-1). In the previous stage of the Brazilian Cup, they lost one of their two matches against Palmeiras (0-1). Out of their last 13 matches in the domestic league, they’ve kept a clean sheet only twice. In five consecutive Serie A matches, Flamengo has conceded regardless of the result: a win over Bragantino (2-1), a draw with Palmeiras (1-1), and losses to São Paulo (0-1), Corinthians (1-2), and Botafogo (1-4). By the end of August, two defenders had joined Flamengo's injury list: Léo Pereira and Alex Sandro. Additionally, other key players such as Vina, Everton, Barbosa, Michel, de Arrascaeta, Pedro, and Nicolás de La Cruz are also out with injuries.
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Bahia approaches the second leg of the quarterfinals of the domestic cup in almost full strength. The only absences are left winger Biel and defensive midfielder Acevedo. However, Acevedo has been out since the start of December, so his absence is not a major concern. Unlike Flamengo, Bahia is only competing in the domestic league and cup, with no international tournaments to juggle. This means Bahia’s squad is both larger and fresher than their opponents. In Serie A, the "Tricolor" is doing quite well, currently sitting in seventh place and boasting an impressive away record. In 12 away matches, they have scored 17 goals. Flamengo, although they win 80% of their home matches in the league, have conceded 17 goals in 12 such games. In the last round, Bahia lost but still managed to score against Bragantino (1-2). Earlier, they secured a 2-0 away win against Grêmio, and before that, they knocked out Serie A leaders Botafogo from the cup, scoring both home and away.
In the first leg of the quarterfinals, Flamengo was fortunate to escape with a win away from home. Their 1-0 victory over Bahia can only be described as lucky. The "Tricolor" looked much stronger, controlled possession, took more shots (16-7), and won more corners (5-1). Despite this, they failed to score, while Flamengo converted their only shot on target into a goal. Football fortune is fickle, and the football gods see everything. That’s why I’m betting that since Bahia couldn’t score at home against Flamengo, they’ll likely score away. Objectively, the "Tricolor" is playing just as well, if not better, than their opponents right now. Their results over both the last five and ten matches are even better than Flamengo’s. In August, across all competitions, Bahia suffered only two defeats in nine matches and failed to score in just three. Flamengo, over the same period, has four losses and only three clean sheets. In their last meeting at the Maracanã, Bahia scored against Flamengo but still lost (1-2). Now, Bahia has no reason to sit back in defense; they need to attack. Considering Flamengo's defensive struggles and numerous injury problems, it’s likely that the home team will concede at least one goal. My bet is Bahia to score over 0.5 goals.
Prediction for the match: Bahia to score – yes.
