Estonia take on the visitors Italy in a World Cup 2026 qualification match. The match will be played on Saturday, October 11th at A. Le Coq Arena (Tallinn).
Estonia remain one of European football’s underdogs. The “Blue Shirts” have had a few chances to qualify for major tournaments, but they have never managed to win a playoff. Last year in the Nations League, they earned all their 4 points only against Azerbaijan, while suffering defeats not just to Sweden but also Slovakia. In 2025, the team continues to perform at roughly the same level. They are clearly stronger than Moldova — having beaten them 3-2 away — but have lost to every opponent above that level: twice to Israel, to Norway, and then were completely dismantled 0-5 in Italy last month. Just a few days later, they played a friendly against modest Andorra, but could only draw 0-0 — hardly a result that would inspire confidence. Estonia’s main problems remain a lack of creativity and poor defensive organization, especially against teams with pace and movement. Their attack shows flashes of potential, but the inability to maintain intensity over 90 minutes continues to cost them valuable points.
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Italy famously lifted the Euro 2020 trophy, and few would argue that their success wasn’t deserved. However, both before and after that triumph, there have been more disappointments than achievements. Under Spalletti, they managed to qualify directly for the Euros and scrape into the knockout stage, but were promptly eliminated 0-2 by Switzerland. In the Nations League, they topped their group before narrowly losing first place to France, only to fall at home to Germany in March. That was followed by a 0-3 humiliation against Norway — a defeat that led to Spalletti’s departure and Gennaro Gattuso’s appointment as head coach. For now, that move seems to have paid off, as Gattuso’s Italy have a perfect record so far: a dominant 5-0 home win over Estonia and a thrilling 5-4 “away” victory against Israel in September. Gattuso has brought back passion and intensity, elements that seemed lost under his predecessor. The players are responding with greater energy and commitment, and the team’s attacking play looks far more direct and effective.
Italy have a perfect record against their Baltic opponents: they’ve won all 8 meetings, conceding only a couple of goals across all matches. It’s clear that the visitors are far superior — the only question is by how much they will win. A repeat of the 5-0 scoreline seems unlikely, but a handicap of “-2.5 goals” looks like a solid option.
Prediction for the match: Italy to win with -2.5 handicap.
