Denmark take on England in the round 2 match of UEFA Euro-2024 group stage. The match will be played on Thursday, June 20th at Deutsche Bank Park (Frankfurt).
The Danes failed to secure a victory against Slovenia in the first round of the Euro group stage, despite performing better than their opponent. They opened the scoring in the 17th minute and maintained an advantage throughout the game. They excelled in all statistical categories: 16-11 in shots, 4-2 in shots on target, 9-5 in corners. They had twice as much possession, and their xG was higher: 1.72 compared to Slovenia's 1.14. They should have scored at least 2-3 more goals, but Slovenia was saved by Oblak's saves. Then, in the 77th minute, the Danes conceded and lost their lead (the match ended 1-1). Now, to keep their playoff hopes alive, Denmark needs to earn points against England, ideally securing a victory.
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Personally, I was disappointed by the Founders of Football in their match against Serbia. Although, probably, nothing else should have been expected from a team managed by Southgate. In the last Euro, he reached the final with his strategy. As the saying goes, "if it ain't broke, don't fix it." After scoring an early goal against Serbia, the English team managed the match in their typical style, with the score remaining 1-0 until the final whistle. This is what our tournament favorites are like in today's reality—extremely pragmatic. England only took seven shots against Serbia, whose defense is clearly less reliable than the disciplined Danish defense. Breaking through the "Red Guard's" defense will be much harder. It's far from certain that Southgate's team will come out on top after 90 minutes in this match.
Defeating the Danes will be much tougher for the English than dealing with the Serbs. The "Red Guard" has a more balanced squad that can pose problems for their opponent both in attack and in defense. Moreover, a draw for the Founders of Football wouldn't be a disaster. However, if the Danes lose, having only one point after two rounds in the group stage will make it much harder for them to advance to the playoffs. Let's not forget that in the semi-final of the previous Euro, everyone considered England to be clear favorites, but the regulation time against the Scandinavians ended in a draw (1-1). And a year before that, in the Nations League, the British couldn't even score against Denmark in two matches (1-1 and a 0-1 loss). I believe that Eriksen and company will at least avoid defeat in the upcoming match. But even if they do lose, it will be by no more than one goal. For safety, I'm taking a handicap (+1) on the nominal hosts.
Prediction for the match: Denmark to win with +1.0 handicap.
