Croatia take on the visitors Portugal in the round 6 match of UEFA Nations League group stage. The match will be played on Monday, November 18th at Stadion Poljud (Split).
Croatia have long been regarded as a top football nation, with a history that includes third place at the 1998 World Cup. Two decades later, under Zlatko Dalić, Croatia surpassed that achievement by reaching the 2018 final, followed by a bronze medal at the 2022 World Cup. However, their performance at Euro 2024 was underwhelming. A crushing 0-3 loss to Spain and last-minute failures against Albania and Italy highlighted their struggles. This autumn's Nations League campaign started with a defeat in Lisbon but saw improvement with four points taken from Poland and a 2-1 home victory over Scotland. However, their trip to Glasgow ended in a costly 0-1 loss after Sučić's early red card. Croatia now needs a strong performance to secure second place in the group.
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Portugal already secured their playoff spot. The "Seleção" transitioned from long-time manager Fernando Santos—who guided them to victories at Euro 2016 and the inaugural Nations League—after the 2022 World Cup. Under Roberto Martínez, Portugal started the Euro 2024 tournament with two wins but suffered a surprising defeat to Georgia. They reached the playoffs, eliminating Slovenia on penalties before bowing out to France in a similar shootout. In this Nations League campaign, Cristiano Ronaldo and company won their first three matches convincingly. November began with a goalless draw in Scotland, but Portugal returned to form with a commanding 5-1 victory over Poland. With first place already secured, Martínez has rested key players, including Ronaldo, for the remainder of the group stage.
Portugal has won the last three competitive encounters between the sides. However, Croatia managed to claim a 2-1 victory in a friendly this summer. Portugal's decision to rest top players and field a rotated squad offers Croatia a golden opportunity. While the "Checkered Ones" have been inconsistent, their need for points and home advantage make them a strong contender for at least a draw. Despite Portugal's status as favorites, their lack of motivation and use of a second-string lineup tilt the balance. Croatia's urgency and experience should be enough to avoid defeat. Bet on Croatia not to lose (1X), with a low-scoring match likely. Total Under 2.5 Goals is also a solid option. A narrow 1-0 or 1-1 result seems plausible.
Prediction for the match: Under 2.5 scored goals.
