Croatia take on the visitors Poland in the round 2 match of UEFA Nations League group stage. The match will be played on Sunday, September 8th at Opus Arena (Osijek).
The 2018 World Cup silver medalists had every chance to make noise at the European Championship, but a goal from Italy’s Mattia Zaccagni dashed all hopes, and the team failed to progress from the group stage. Overall, as the Euro qualification progressed, Croatia returned to the form they had shown the year prior, especially after a 2-1 win over Portugal right before the tournament. It’s worth noting that Zlatko Dalić is a coach with an attacking mindset, as Croatia didn’t hesitate to play a 4-3-3 formation against both Spain and Italy. However, in the previous Nations League match, Dalić "burned out" by opting for a 3-5-1-1 system, which he eventually had to change. In 10 of their last 11 matches, Croatia has always managed to score. They score plenty, but conceding 8 goals in their last 4 matches is quite a lot. At home, they always pick up points, having lost just once in the past two years, and even in that game, they failed to score. Once again, Croatia doesn’t sit back in defense, doesn’t waste passes, and focuses on attack and beautiful, combinational football, which could be the catalyst for a high-scoring affair in this upcoming match.
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Poland is undergoing a generational shift, but the most important change is that the team no longer plays solely for Robert Lewandowski. There is more variety in their play, which has resulted in strong offensive output – the team has scored at least one goal in each of their last 12 consecutive matches. I didn’t expect much from Poland at the Euros, especially with such a difficult group, yet they managed to draw with France (1-1), put up a respectable fight against Austria (1-3), and lost narrowly to Portugal (1-2). In all three of these matches, both teams found the net. The same continued in the Nations League, where Poland won a thrilling 3-2 shootout against Scotland. Their opponent came back from 0-2, but the Poles secured victory with a 96th-minute penalty. Poland struggles in defense, as shown by Scotland scoring two goals in the second half despite an xG of just 0.85. However, one positive for us is that the visitors don’t tend to slow the game down, as many teams might try to defend a lead. In 5 of Poland’s last 7 matches, the "Over 2.5 goals" bet has cashed in without any issues. Poland both plays and lets others play.
Personally, I expect a game filled with scoring chances that will turn into goals. Poland has struggled on the road (losing 2-3 to Moldova and 1-3 to the Czech Republic), but they always manage to find a goal. The team often plays with three defenders, who frequently fail to keep up with the pace of the game, especially as their wide midfielders don’t track back enough. Croatia, meanwhile, consistently scores in front of their home fans, often forgetting about defense. Both teams are known for their offensive abilities, and I anticipate a high-scoring match. Therefore, I recommend betting on "Over 2.5 goals," as both teams tend to find weaknesses in the defenses of even top European sides (Italy, France, Germany), often managing to score against them.
Prediction for the match: Over 2.5 scored goals.
