Croatia take on Italy in the round 3 match of UEFA Euro-2024 group stage. The match will be played on Monday, June 24th at Red Bull Arena (Leipzig).
Croatia comes to the last tournament for several veterans. The "Checkered Ones" have a very seasoned group of leaders. Frankly, even stars like Modrić are starting to decline, unable to perform at their peak for entire matches. Despite this, they managed to secure a bronze medal at the World Cup and only lost to Spain in the Nations League final on penalties last year. However, they had a rough qualification period with a couple of defeats in October. Eventually, they managed to qualify for the Euros directly, and performed well in friendlies, including a notable 2-1 victory in Portugal. But young Spain quickly exposed all the problems in Dalic's team, scoring three goals in the first half. The team was so shocked that they couldn’t even respond with a penalty. They also weren’t prepared for Albania – they conceded first and, although they took the lead thanks to a fortunate own goal, allowed the underdogs to equalize in the dying moments.
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Italy are the reigning champions. But since then, they’ve faced several setbacks: finishing second in their qualifying group behind Switzerland, losing at home to North Macedonia in the playoffs, and suffering two defeats to England in 2023’s Euro qualifiers. On the other hand, Luciano Spalletti’s squad, though not dazzling, achieves the necessary results. Yes, they played for a draw against Ukraine in the last round and secured it with some controversy over a potential penalty – Mudryk was brought down towards the end of the match. But what use was the draw to the "Yellow-Blues" when the tie-breaker criteria awarded second place to their opponents? At the Euros, they quickly rectified Dimarco's blunder, which led to Bajrami's goal, by overturning the game to 2-1 within a powerful fifteen minutes. However, they then openly played to preserve this scoreline and could have been punished by Silvinho's team in the end. Still, they started in Germany with a win. Against Spain, they struggled to hold onto the ball, and predictably, it ended in a 0-1 defeat.
The Croatians have not lost to the Italian giants. They’ve won three times and drawn five times, including in all three recent encounters, each ending 1-1. The "Azzurri" are considered the favorites, but their opponents have nothing to lose and need a win. We expect a "total over 2.5 goals" match.
Prediction for the match: Over 2.5 scored goals.
