Croatia take on the visitors France in the first leg of UEFA Nations League quarterfinals. The match will be played on Thursday, March 20th at Stadion Poljud (Split).
Croatia aims to prove it still belongs among the elite. The Checkered Ones have enjoyed their best years under Zlatko Dalić. They reached the 2018 World Cup final and followed it up with a bronze medal in Qatar. That made last summer’s Euro 2024 disappointment even harder to swallow. Their campaign started with a 0-3 thrashing by Spain, followed by frustrating draws against Albania and Italy. In both cases, they conceded in stoppage time, and had they held onto just one of those leads, they would have advanced—but in the end, they failed to reach the knockout stage. The UEFA Nations League wasn’t much better, as they recorded two wins and earned eight points in matches against Portugal, Scotland, and Poland. However, finishing second in their group at least secured a spot in the semifinals. Their recent defensive struggles, with only one clean sheet in their last five games, remain a concern.
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France have been under Didier Deschamps for over a decade. Under his leadership, they reached two World Cup finals—winning in 2018 and losing to Argentina on penalties in 2022. However, their performances in the Euros have been less convincing, from losing to Portugal in extra time in 2016 to an underwhelming 2024 campaign. They struggled to score from open play, relying on penalties and own goals to reach the semifinals, where they fell 1-2 to eventual champions Spain. The Nations League campaign began with a home defeat to Italy. However, despite missing Antoine Griezmann and dealing with an injured Kylian Mbappé, they managed to overtake the Azzurri for the top spot, sealing it with a crucial 3-1 away victory at San Siro. Their ability to grind out results, even with an underwhelming attack, remains their biggest strength.
Since their 2018 World Cup triumph over Croatia, Les Bleus have also beaten them twice in the 2020 Nations League. However, in the next edition, the Checkered Ones turned things around, earning a 1-1 draw at home before securing a 1-0 victory in France. Deschamps’ side is considered the favorite, even away from home against Dalić’s men. However, both managers are pragmatic, so a bet on Under 2.5 Goals looks like the safest option.
Prediction for the match: Under 2.5 scored goals.
