Canada take on the visitors Guatemala in quarterfinals of Gold Cup. The match will be played on Sunday, June 29th at U.S. Bank Stadium (Minneapolis, MN).
Canada steamrolled through the group stage, finishing first for the first time since 2009. Yes, there was the 6-0 demolition of Honduras and a confident 2-0 win over El Salvador. But let’s not get carried away by the big scorelines. What really matters is the true test, and it came in the match against Curaçao, which ended in a 1-1 draw. That game exposed certain defensive vulnerabilities within the maple leafs' backline. It’s also worth noting that Canada allowed Curaçao to create 1.74 expected goals (xG) — an alarming figure against a team of that level. Despite the clean sheets against weaker opponents, this draw highlighted that Canada still struggles when pressed by organized attacking teams. Assistant coach Mauro Biello was brutally honest after that game: “We let the game become too open, committed silly fouls, and struggled with second balls and set pieces.” These comments weren’t just emotions—they were a clear indication of the team’s weaknesses that the next opponent can and should exploit. The fact remains: Canada conceded in that match. Moreover, the numbers are telling—Canada have conceded at least one goal in 9 of their last 14 home games. Adding to that concern, the team is also missing a key midfield player due to injury, which could further destabilize their defensive structure. Their tendency to overcommit going forward often leaves gaps in transition, something opponents have capitalized on before.
| 2 x £10 Free Bet | Review | |||
| 100$-500$ for No Lose Free Bets | Review | |||
| 100% up to £200 | Review | |||
| Not available | Review |
Now let’s turn to Guatemala. Luis Fernando Tena’s team are far from pushovers; they are a disciplined, well-organized side capable of causing problems. They finished second in their group, securing two wins, including a historic 1-0 victory over Jamaica and a thrilling 3-2 shootout against Guadeloupe. This is a team that has consistently punched above its weight in recent international fixtures. Notably, Guatemala have suffered just two defeats in their last ten matches, showing clear signs of growth and stability under Tena. Guatemala were especially impressive in the decisive game against Guadeloupe. They registered 11 shots, with 5 on target, and produced an outstanding expected goals (xG) number of 2.58. Their three goals in that match were fully deserved based on the quality of chances created. Even Canada’s head coach Jesse Marsch acknowledged their attacking threat, stating that Guatemala “have pace and creativity up front.” Furthermore, Guatemala have scored in 14 of their last 20 away games, underlining their ability to break down defenses on the road. Their xG numbers over the last six months have been consistently solid, reflecting a team that not only creates chances but also converts them at an efficient rate.
Yes, on paper Canada are the favorites. But football is a game of details, and those details suggest Guatemala have every chance of finding the back of the net. Canada’s well-documented issues defending set pieces and second balls, something their own coaching staff openly admitted after the Curaçao match, cannot be ignored. Add to that the absence of a key midfield disruptor, and the defensive fragility becomes even more concerning. On the other hand, we see a Guatemala side that has already scored against both Jamaica and Guadeloupe in this tournament. Their attack is varied, and their recent xG figures show that they consistently generate quality chances. The “pace and creativity” Jesse Marsch referred to is exactly the kind of weapon that can expose Canada’s somewhat shaky defensive line.
Prediction for the match: Guatemala to score – yes.
