Cagliari take on the visitors Fiorentina in the round 38 match of Italian Serie A. The match will be played on Thursday, April 23rd at Unipol Domus (Cagliari).
The Red and Blues have three more points than Empoli, who are currently in the relegation zone. To ensure they remain unaffected by their competitor's results, the islanders need at least a draw in their final league match against Fiorentina. In my opinion, the hosts are quite capable of achieving this. Cagliari haven't been losing frequently lately, having been defeated only three times in their last ten matches. If they did lose in the spring, it was only in away games. In their last five home league matches, they have consistently earned points: victories over Salernitana (4-2) and Atalanta (2-1), and draws with Verona (1-1), Lecce (1-1), and Juventus (2-2).
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If even Juventus and Atalanta dropped points at this stadium recently, why couldn't Fiorentina, who are also fighting for a spot in European competitions while competing internationally, make a slip? Fiorentina is one step away from a trophy in the Conference League. While Cagliari haven't been losing often in Serie A lately, Fiorentina have managed only three victories in their last ten league matches. In their previous five away games in the tournament, Vincenzo Italiano's team won just once (against Salernitana). They drew with Torino (0-0) and Empoli (1-1), and lost to Juventus (0-1) and Verona (0-2).
In the first round of this season, Fiorentina easily defeated this opponent at home (3-0). Cagliari consistently loses in Florence, but when it comes to their home games against Fiorentina, the hosts haven't lost in a long time. Regardless of Cagliari's form in any given season, they almost always put up a fight against Fiorentina at home. Even in the year when the Red and Blues were relegated to Serie B, they didn't lose to Fiorentina at home (1-1). The last time Fiorentina won on this opponent's turf was in 2017. I believe the visitors might drop points again. Especially since they have a Conference League final in less than a week. My prediction is a handicap (+1) for Cagliari. Fiorentina is the favorite on paper, but I don't have confidence in their victory.
Prediction for the match: Cagliari to win with +1.0 handicap.
