Brighton take on the visitors Roma in the first leg of UEFA Europa League 1/8-finals. First leg result: 0-4. The match will be played on Thursday, February 14th at Amex Stadium (Brighton).
Over the past few years, Brighton's presence in the Premier League and European competitions has almost conditioned us to automatically bet on Over 2.5 goals when watching their matches. And up until now, it has worked. But this season is an exception. In three out of four recent Premier League matches, for example, the Seagulls played Under 2.5 goals: a win against Nottingham Forest (1-0), a draw with Everton (1-1), and a loss to Fulham (0-1). Let's also look at their Europa League matches. In all the matches where Brighton played Over 2.5 goals, the team either lost or drew. But in four out of seven tournament matches (in more than half of the matches), Under 2.5 goals were recorded: victories against Ajax (2-0 and 2-0), AEK (1-0), and Marseille (1-0). I believe that in the second leg of the round of 16, the English team won't lose to the Italians, and together they will organize no more than two or three attempts on goal.
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Roma have already settled all doubts regarding their advancement to the quarterfinals. Of course, anything can happen in football, but overcoming a four-goal deficit for the current Brighton team against the Romans will be practically impossible. And for the Wolves, this match becomes a mere formality, for which there is no need to exert themselves. It's better to focus all their energy on Serie A, where Roma are fighting for a place in the Champions League zone. Plus, this team does not perform well away in European competitions when it comes to the total goals. The match against Sheriff (2-1) was an exception. In the other matches involving Roma in the current Europa League group stage, fewer than three goals were scored: a loss to Slavia (0-2), draws with Servette (1-1) and Feyenoord (1-1).
Brighton need to make a worthy comeback, redeem themselves in front of the fans, shout those who expect Over 2.5 goals in this match. But do the Seagulls really need that in the second leg? No, of course, the hosts will try to get revenge for the loss in Rome. But right now, they are not in the right condition or form to crush opponents, especially a strong Roma side. It turns out that recently Brighton have been playing Under more often than Over. As for Roma, which has secured a comfortable advantage in the first leg, they typically aim for Under in away matches. Drying up and achieving the desired outcome is what matters most. And even a defeat with a hypothetical score of 0-1 or 0-2 won't upset the Romans at all. So, if we speak bluntly, the second leg holds almost no significance for both teams. Based on this and all that was written above, I don't expect more than two goals from both the Wolves and the Seagulls combined. But to play it safe, I'll still go for Under (3).
Prediction for the match: Under 3.0 scored goals.
