Besiktas take on the visitors Malmo in the round 4 match of UEFA Europa League group stage. The match will be played on Wednesday, November 6th at Tupras Stadium (Istanbul).
Beşiktaş seemed down and out after two losses in the Europa League's opening rounds (1-3 to Eintracht and 0-4 to Ajax looked decisive). However, the Turkish club managed a narrow victory over Olympique Lyon (0-1) on the road. Those who watched the game would agree that the score didn’t reflect the play—Lyon had over 30 attempts, and Beşiktaş barely held on. The quality of play under Giovanni van Bronckhorst remains lackluster, as shown by their recent Super Lig losses to Galatasaray (1-2) and a surprise home defeat to mid-table Kasımpaşa (1-3). While Beşiktaş has strong attacking players like Immobile, Rafa Silva, and Ernest Muçi, their defense remains the team's Achilles' heel, dragging them down.
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The Swedish champions, Malmö, recently clinched their league title for the second consecutive year by defeating Göteborg 2-1. Their game against Hammarby (2-2) just before heading to Istanbul was simply for maintaining form and didn’t impact the standings. Malmö can now focus on the Europa League, where, like Beşiktaş, they also have only one win in three matches. The team lost both home games (0-2 to Rangers and 0-1 to Olympiacos) but managed an impressive away win against the experienced Qarabağ in Baku (2-1). Malmö excels at exploiting defensive mistakes, counterattacking sharply, and creating pressure in open spaces, so Beşiktaş shouldn’t underestimate them. The squad includes talented and experienced players like Kiese Thelin and Botheim, who are capable of producing a positive result.
I considered either backing the underdog with a plus handicap or taking their individual total over since Beşiktaş’s defense is incredibly leaky. However, I believe the current form of Beşiktaş doesn’t suggest they can secure a two-goal victory over the Swedish champions. Malmö, fresh from winning the Allsvenskan, can now focus entirely on the Europa League, where they still have a shot at the playoffs. The combination of Beşiktaş’s recent slump and their constant defensive errors under van Bronckhorst leads me to favor Malmö with a positive handicap in this game. So far, Beşiktaş hasn’t won at home in this tournament stage, and Malmö has shown their scoring ability on the road in Baku.
Prediction for the match: Malmo to win with +1.0 handicap.
