Benfica take on the visitors Real Madrid in the first leg of UEFA Champions League round of 1/16-finals. The match will be played on Tuesday, February 17th at Estádio da Luz (Lisbon).
Benfica have somewhat slipped into the shadows recently behind their neighbor, Sporting. It seemed that at least this time everything would work out — they started by beating Sporting in the Super Cup, then kept winning through the summer and beyond, including Champions League qualification ties against Nice and Fenerbahce. However, the limp 2–3 defeat in the very first round against Qarabag triggered a managerial change, with Mourinho returning to Lisbon. Domestically, this brought no real improvement: the giants were knocked out of the cups and now trail Porto by around ten points in the Primeira Liga. On the European stage, things also began with defeats. Still, momentum has improved lately, and recent results suggest a more pragmatic and resilient approach is finally paying off. At home, Benfica have been far more consistent in recent weeks, regularly converting pressure into goals and points.
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Real Madrid have changed managers twice in less than a year. Los Blancos failed to win a single trophy in 2025, which even cost Ancelotti his job. Xabi Alonso then struggled and ultimately lasted only half a year, with his dismissal following a Super Cup defeat to Barcelona. His successor, Arbeloa, immediately suffered a setback as well, losing in the Copa del Rey to the modest Albacete. Overall, the team’s only real stability came in the Champions League. On the other hand, after starting with three wins, the Spaniards began alternating victories with defeats — first away in Liverpool, then at home against Manchester City. Real have looked less convincing on the road lately, especially against opponents willing to play aggressively. Even so, their ability to respond after setbacks remains one of their key strengths.
The clubs have never faced each other in the Champions League before — and now they are set to meet there three times in a row. It is clear that boredom will not be an option again — the bet is that the neighbors will once more go over the line of total over 2.5 goals.
Prediction for the match: Over 2.5 scored goals.
