Azerbaijan take on the visitors Sweden in the round 1 match of UEFA Nations League group stage. The match will be played on Thursday, September 5th at Tofiq Bahramov Stadium (Baku).
Azerbaijan bets on another experienced foreign coach. The "Land of Fire" has the resources—thanks to oil—and the desire to invest in sports, especially football. In a club setting, it's possible to build a strong structure by purchasing skilled players, as proven by Qarabag, who consistently perform well in European competitions. However, with the national team, the only option is to bring in a foreign coach, which is exactly what they have been doing. Baku has seen many coaches, from Berti Vogts to Gianni De Biasi, but the best they’ve achieved is promotion and stabilization in League C of the Nations League. In all other qualifiers, the results have been disappointing; for instance, in the last European Championship qualifiers, they managed only 2 wins and 7 points, finishing fourth in their group. Now, Fernando Santos, who had unsuccessful stints with Poland and Besiktas but is well-remembered for his work with Greece and Portugal, will attempt to restore his reputation here. This will be his debut—let's see what he can offer in the Caucasus.
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Sweden reached the quarterfinals of the World Cup as recently as 2018, even knocking Italy out in the playoffs. They also won their group in the following European Championship. However, since then, things have fallen apart, including finishing last in their Nations League group, which led to their relegation to League C in the current tournament. Moreover, Sweden failed to qualify for both the World Cup and Euro 2024. While they lost in the playoffs for the World Cup, their European Championship qualification campaign was a disaster, with just 3 wins and 10 points from 8 matches. Now, the team is under the guidance of Jon Dahl Tomasson. Tomasson made a name for himself as a coach at the club level, particularly with Malmö. After an unsuccessful stint in the English Championship, he returned this spring. So far, the results have been underwhelming: a single win against Albania, losses of 2-5 to Portugal, 1-2 to Denmark, and 0-3 to Serbia, though these were all friendlies.
In the 2002 World Cup qualifiers, Sweden was clearly the stronger side. However, last year in the Euro qualifiers, the teams exchanged emphatic and "clean sheet" home victories. The visitors are considered clear favorites, but it's not guaranteed that they will live up to this status. A bet on the home team to win with a "+1 goal" handicap seems like a solid choice.
Prediction for the match: Azerbaijan to win with +1.0 handicap.
