Atletico Mineiro take on the visitors Sao Paulo in the round 16 match of Brazilian Serie A. The match will be played on Friday, July 12th at MRV Arena (Belo Horizonte).
Atlético Mineiro is currently sitting in 12th place in the table. Just a few rounds ago, the "Roosters" were in a much better position. The team is experiencing a slump and hasn't won in the league for three consecutive matches: a draw with Atlético-GO (1-1), losses to Flamengo (2-4) and Botafogo (0-3). In the last seven rounds, Atlético has secured only one victory, and that was an away match. The team performs very poorly at home, but more on that later. First, let's list the "Roosters'" personnel losses. Due to yellow card accumulation, attacking midfielder Igor Gomes (11 matches, 2 assists) will not play, and Hulk (10 matches, 3 goals + 3 assists) will also be absent. Due to national team call-ups, Guilherme Arana (6 matches, 1 goal + 1 assist), Alan Franco (7 matches), and Eduardo Vargas (8 matches, 3 goals) won't be on the field. Additionally, defender Rubens and central midfielder Otavio are still injured. Yes, they've been in the infirmary for a long time, but their presence on the field would have filled some gaps amidst other losses.
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São Paulo also has personnel issues, mainly related to players being away with their national teams. Some have not yet returned from the Copa America, while others are back but not ready to play. Among these players are goalkeeper Rafael (7 matches this season), Venezuelan Ferraresi (4 matches, 1 goal), Paraguayan Bobadilla (6 matches, 1 goal), and Colombian James Rodriguez (4 matches, 1 goal + 5 assists). However, as you can see, these players haven't appeared on the field very often this season. Even without them, São Paulo looks great in Serie A. They are in fourth place, just four points behind the leading Flamengo, and are coming into this match with a four-game winning streak in the league: victories over Criciúma (2-1), Bahia (3-1), Atlético Paranaense (2-1), and Bragantino (2-0).
So, what do we have in the end? Two teams with squads of nearly equal strength. However, one is in the leading group, while the other is in the middle of the table. As noted, both the hosts and the guests have significant personnel problems. In my opinion, this match could go in any direction, with São Paulo's chances of success being no less than those of Atlético Mineiro. Unlike their opponent, the "Tricolor" have been in great form lately and have performed quite well away from home this season, suffering only two defeats in seven away matches, and just one in their last five. The "Roosters" are one of the weakest teams when it comes to playing at home. In seven home attempts in the league, they have secured only one victory, and that was in a derby against Cruzeiro at the very start of the season. My prediction is a double chance (X2) on the guests, as they are more than capable of securing at least a draw.
Prediction for the match: Sao Paulo not to lose (X2).
