Atletico Madrid take on the visitors Inter in the second leg of UEFA Champions League 1/8-finals. First leg result: 0-1. The match will be played on Wednesday, February 13th at Metropolitano Stadium (Madrid).
Atletico won their Champions League group, but fate handed them one of the toughest opponents possible among those teams that finished second in their groups for the Round of 16. In the first leg, the Mattress Makers lost to the Italians without any chances. Yes, a 0-1 scoreline is far from decisive. But right now I'm not talking about the score. I'm talking about the fact that Inter was stronger than their opponent in terms of xG: 2.33 versus 0.61. Things are not going well for Atletico in their country's championship either. The team is outside the Champions League spots, dropping points in two of their last three matches where they shouldn't have: a draw with Almeria (2-2) and a loss to Cadiz (0-2). They've also been eliminated from the domestic cup, losing twice to Athletic Bilbao (0-1 and 0-3). It's just a really tough time for them.
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Well, if Atletico have been struggling in matches against La Liga's underdogs like Cadiz and Almeria lately, then it's unlikely we'll see a comeback from them after losing to the Italians in the first leg of the Champions League. And what about the current Inter? Simone Inzaghi's men have extended their winning streak in all competitions to 14 matches in a row. In the last six of those, they conceded only once, and in the last ten, they kept clean sheets eight times. In Serie A, they have a 16-point lead over their nearest competitor in the championship race. In the domestic league, the Milanese can afford to relax and throw all their efforts into the Champions League, trying to at least replicate their last year's run to the final. With such circumstances, it's hard to believe that Atletico will make it to the quarter-finals from this tie.
Undoubtedly, the second leg of these teams will likely bring us more goals than the first encounter. But I don't expect a shootout like 3-2 or 4-1 in anyone's favor. So, the first part of the bet doesn't raise any doubts for me - it's Under 4.5 Goals. After all, this is the Round of 16 in the Champions League, not just another round of the domestic league. Yes, the Mattress Makers need to bounce back. But exposing themselves too much against today's Inter would be suicidal. As for the outcome, despite all the sympathy and respect for the Spaniards, I don't believe in their victory even at home. Of course, the Champions League is separate from all other competitions, and anything can happen here. But we're looking for logical arguments in favor of the bet. And it's hard to argue against the fact that overall and especially recently, Milanese look much more solid than Madridistas both in terms of football quality and results. My prediction is Double Chance (X2) + Under 4.5 Goals.
Prediction for the match: Inter not to lose and Under 4.5 scored goals.
