Atletico Madrid take on the visitors Arsenal in the first leg of UEFA Champions League semifinals. The match will be played on Wednesday, April 29th at Metropolitano Stadium (Madrid).
Atlético have been playing under the same — and quite expensive — manager for a very long time. In recent seasons, there have been increasing doubts about whether to keep Diego Simeone, especially since he has not only failed to catch up with Real Madrid and FC Barcelona, but even lost 3rd place in La Liga two seasons ago. Even now, Villarreal CF look at least as strong. Their recent performances in knockout competitions, however, have been extremely solid, with the team showing discipline and efficiency. They have proven capable of managing games and protecting advantages when it matters most. In elimination matches, though, “El Cholo” demonstrates his class. In the Copa del Rey and especially in the UEFA Champions League, the Spaniards were not particularly impressive in the main round (4 wins and 14 points), but then comfortably eliminated both Club Brugge and Tottenham Hotspur. Against the Catalans in the quarter-finals, they repeated the same trick as in the cup: a convincing first-leg win followed by a result-oriented second leg — this time it was 2–0 away and a controversial 1–2 defeat in Madrid.
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Arsenal raised many questions in the spring. “The Gunners,” despite undeniable progress under Mikel Arteta, finished 2nd in the Premier League for the third consecutive year, which already looked like stagnation. This season could have been a breakthrough, with talk even of a treble or quadruple. Their recent form, however, has dipped, with key matches slipping away and momentum fading. They have struggled to maintain their earlier dominance, especially in decisive moments. Before the international break in March, they lost 0–2 to Manchester City in the League Cup final. After the restart, they were knocked out of the FA Cup by Southampton FC. The dip also affected their Champions League campaign — after a perfect main round with 8 wins, they nearly lost in Leverkusen but beat Bayer 04 Leverkusen at home. Against Sporting CP, everything was decided by a single goal from Kai Havertz over 180+ minutes.
In 2018 in the Europa League, the Spaniards were stronger: 1–1 away and 1–0 in Madrid. However, in October the “red-and-whites” secured a crushing 4–0 away win. Atlético are not widely expected to take revenge, with the British side slightly favored. Still, this is a clash of pragmatic teams — backing under 2.5 total goals looks like the right call.
Prediction for the match: Under 2.5 scored goals.
