AS Roma take on the visitors Athletic Bilbao in the first leg of UEFA Europa League round of 1/8-finals. The match will be played on Thursday, March 6th at Stadio Olimpico (Rome).
Roma changed managers twice before winter. The early dismissal of De Rossi after just a few setbacks seemed hasty, while the appointment of Jurić turned out to be an ill-conceived failure. Fortunately, Ranieri returned to Rome, coming out of retirement for his third stint at the Stadio Olimpico. With his vast experience, Claudio managed to bring stability. Yes, they lost to Milan in the Coppa Italia under him, but in Serie A, they steadily climbed the table and nearly stopped losing altogether. Their Europa League campaign was less straightforward, as they suffered a defeat to AZ Alkmaar in January. However, with 12 points, Dovbyk and company advanced to the knockout stage, where they eliminated Porto—drawing 1-1 away before securing a 3-2 victory in Rome. Roma’s defensive organization has notably improved, making them a tougher team to break down in high-stakes matches.
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Athletic continues to progress. The Basques have made significant strides since Valverde returned to Bilbao. While the 2022/2023 season showed only relative improvement, last spring, they ended a trophy drought dating back to 1984 by winning the Copa del Rey. They also came close to securing fourth place in La Liga but ultimately lost out to Atlético Madrid. This season, Williams and company have broken into the top four, though they still have Villarreal close behind. Their return to European competition has been impressive as well. After opening with a draw in Rome, they went on a five-match winning streak. In January, perhaps already relaxed, they suffered a shocking 1-4 defeat to Beşiktaş in Istanbul. However, they redeemed themselves with a strong 3-1 victory over Viktoria Plzeň in the final group-stage match. Despite their attacking prowess, Athletic has shown occasional defensive lapses, which could be costly in a tight knockout tie.
The 1-1 draw in September was the first official meeting between the clubs, following a 2-2 friendly five years ago. The Giallorossi are slight favorites at home. However, with two experienced and cautious coaches facing off in a first-leg knockout match, this game is likely to see under 2.5 goals.
Prediction for the match: Under 2.5 scored goals.
