Vasco take on the visitors Athletico Paranaense in the round 16 match of Brazilian Serie A. The match will be played on Monday, July 24th at Estádio Vasco da Gama (Rio de Janeiro).
Vasco da Gama are one of the major disappointments in the first half of the current season of the Brazilian championship. The team is in the relegation zone, sitting second to last in the table, and it is justified. The lack of quality in the squad prevents the club, named after the great explorer, from playing an open style of football. Their attacking prowess is weak, so their strategy revolves around drying out the matches and defending with great effort. As a result, most of their games tend to have under 2.5 goals. In the last four league matches, this betting option has been consistent: defeats against Goias (0-1), Cruzeiro Miniero (0-1), and Botafogo (0-2), along with a victory over Cuiaba (1-0).
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Atletico Paranaense are a mid-table team in the top division of Brazil, currently placed ninth in the table. This team lacks stability, and successful matches are interspersed with failures. Mostly, Atletico accumulates points on their home ground. For instance, they recently secured wins against Corinthians (1-0) and Bahia (2-0), both with under 2.5 goals. However, in their last away match of the championship, the "red and black" suffered a defeat against Fortaleza (0-1). Expecting a strong attacking performance from Atletico in their upcoming away match is not reasonable. However, the visitors are unlikely to allow many attempts on their goal against one of the weakest teams in Serie A.
In this match, I don't anticipate a high-scoring affair, and it seems logical to bet on under 2.5 goals. This option has successfully hit in 8 out of 15 league matches involving the visitors and in 9 out of 14 matches involving the hosts. Vasco da Gama, in general, scores fewer goals than any other team in the championship. The players of Atletico Paranaense have a slightly better scoring record, but their away performances are much less prolific than their home games. They have only scored 6 goals out of a total of 20 away from their home ground. The three previous encounters between these teams at Vasco da Gama's stadium also did not yield many accurate strikes: 1-1, 1-1, 1-0. Therefore, I believe that spectators will witness a maximum of 1-2 goals in this match.
Prediction for the match: Over 2.5 scored goals.