Valencia hosts Getafe in round 6 of Spanish LaLiga. The match will be played on Wednesday, September 25th at Estadio de Mestalla (Valencia)
More recently, Valencia played a draw in a match against Leganes under the management of a new coach, Albert Celades. Let's take a look at that match against Leganes in a bit more detail: Leganes came to Mestalla, taking the last place in the standings of LaLiga. It was not justified (the team of Pelegrino also has a good positional defense; somewhere they played poorly, somewhere they were not very lucky with a good game - hence the results). Nevertheless, Leganes had problems with the attack: they scored just 1 goal in 4 matches and created 3.49 expected goals (an average result). What happened in the Valencia-Leganes match? Leganes, which had never shot rapids of 1.5 expected goals per match in this championship, managed to gain as much as 1.53 xG, creating 2 obvious goal attempts. Valencia also had obvious goal attempts and gained 1.69 xG. Of course, the Los Ches owned the initiative (62% -34% in terms of ball possession), but the team of Celades was simply terrible in terms of restraining those rare attacks of Leganes and creating its attempts.
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Getafe finally managed to gain the first victory in the current championship of Spain: the team of Jose Bordalas managed to beat Mallorca with a 4:2 score in an atypically bright match. It is worth saying that Getafe's modest start can be partly explained by a difficult calendar. They have already played with Atletico Madrid (the leader of LaLiga in terms of xPTS and a super-team on the flanks), Athletic Bilbao (it also attacks from the flanks greatly) and Alaves (the team is not very good at attacking, but it’s very difficult to break through its defense). The team of Bordalas showed a high-quality game against Mallorca. The only thing that looked slightly illogical was the number of goals scored (the scores like 3:1, 3:0 or 2:0 would reflect the situation on the pitch much better).
Getafe pleased its fans in the last round, and do not forget about its excellent game against Trabzonspor. As for Valencia, something very strange and unpleasant is happening. There is a feeling that they will have a repeat of the recent story with the Spanish national team - instead of a cool coach, a person without any experience comes solely for the sake of preserving the old style. Getafe is in better shape than Valencia now, and the work of Celades is not very impressive so far. Because of this, it seems logical to me to believe in the visitors (in any case, in their non-failure), so my forecast is a +1 handicap of Getafe.
Prediction for the match: Getafe to win with +1.0 handicap
