Ukraine faces England in the Euro quarterfinals. The match will be played on Saturday, July 3rd at Stadio Olimpico (Rome)
Ukraine beat Sweden in the 1/8 finals of the Euro (2-1). According to statistics, the Ukrainian team was not much stronger than Sweden. Andriy Shevchenko's men had more possession of the ball (54%), but the teams had an almost equal indicator in terms of shots on goal (15 shots for Ukraine versus 13 for Sweden). In terms of the sharpness of the attacks, the teams were also at about the same level (1xG for Ukraine versus 1.2 xG for Sweden). Andriy Shevchenko's team played a good match, primarily due to coaching decisions. For example, the team has changed their usual formation and played with three central defenders. That decision allowed Ukraine to create a numerical advantage in the first third against the 4-4-2 formation of the Swedes. The transfer of Zinchenko to his usual left flank worked well. The player helped move the ball and actively participated in attacks. Zinchenko was one of the most passing players among both teams, and he also made the most passes in the final third among the players of the Ukrainian national team.
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The England national team beat Germany in the 1/8 finals (2-0). For the Three Lions, it was the 4th match in the tournament without conceding goals. Southgate's team remained the only team to keep a clean sheet in all games. Like Ukraine in the match against Sweden, England eliminated Germany through coaching decisions. Southgate chose the formation with three central defenders to prevent Germany from using the flank players as effectively as the Germans did against Portugal. England played very carefully and did not take risks even during attacks. Throughout the game, the British delivered five shots on goal, but the Germans were not much better (nine shots). The metrics of the expected goals reflect how few dangerous chances both teams created (0.9 xG for England versus 0.5 xG for Germany).
Despite the fantastic attacking group, England plays pragmatic football and shuts out as much as possible. This is reflected in production. The Three Lions scored only four goals at this Euro. Of the teams that played in the 1/8 finals, only the Wales national team scored less (three goals). And England are unlikely to use a different approach in the match against Ukraine. Surely, the British will be as careful as possible in the first half, but they will begin to strengthen the attack point-by-point through substitutions in the second half, as they did in the match against Germany. The game will become more open, and there will be more opportunities for attacks. This should be reflected in the score.
Prediction for the match: Teams to score more goals in the second half than in the first one
