Tobol take on the visitors Honka Narva in the first leg of UEFA Conference League qualification round of 1/8-finals. The match will be played on Thursday, July 13th at Centralnyj Stadion (Kostanay).
Tobol are the bronze medalist of the 2022/23 Kazakhstan Premier League season. The Yellow-Greens finished six points behind the champion, Astana, and five points behind the runner-up, Aktobe. Tobol is also the holder of the 2022 Kazakhstan Super Cup and has never been relegated from the Kazakhstan Premier League. In the current season, Tobol's performance in the league has been relatively unsuccessful so far. After fourteen matches, they have accumulated 23 points and currently sit in sixth place. However, under the guidance of Serbian coach Milic Čurčić, the team reached the final of the Kazakhstan Cup by defeating Atyrau in the semifinals with a 1-0 aggregate score. Interestingly, Tobol played against Atyrau four times in the past two and a half weeks: twice in the domestic cup and twice in the league, resulting in three victories and one defeat in the Premier League. Tobol does not have as rich of a experience in European competitions as Astana, but in the past two seasons, the team consistently reached the third round of the UEFA Conference League qualifiers. For instance, in the previous European campaign, they were eliminated by Bosnia and Herzegovina's representative, Žrinjski (0-1, 1-1).
Honka are a modest Finnish club from the city of Espoo. In the previous season of the Finnish Veikkausliiga, the team won the bronze medals. Their highest achievement prior to that was a silver medal in 2012 and a victory in the Finnish Cup in 2013. The current Finnish season is also in progress, and Honka currently occupies the fifth position in the league. However, they are already eight points behind the top three teams. In their recent five league matches, under the guidance of their coach Vesa Vasara, Honka achieved two victories, two draws, and one defeat. Similarly to their opponent, Honka has had some success in the Finnish Cup, as they successfully reached the quarterfinal stage by defeating SalPa 3-1. Concerning their performances in European competitions, Honka's achievements have been relatively modest. In the 2020/21 and 2021/22 seasons, their tournament journey was limited to the first qualifying round of the UEFA Europa League and the Conference League. Only once in their history did Honka reach the third round, back in 2009.
In my opinion, Tobol are the favorite for this home match for several reasons. The Kazakh team performs quite well on their home ground, having lost only two matches at home in the current season, both against top teams in Kazakhstan. Moreover, when playing on the international stage, Tobol has been challenging for visiting teams. For example, last year they did not suffer defeat at home against Ferencváros and Žrinjski. Honka does not excel in away matches, even in the Finnish league. Combined with their lesser experience in European competitions and the long journey to Kazakhstan, the chances of a positive result for Honka are diminished. My prediction: Tobol with a 1-goal handicap (0).
Prediction for the match: Tobol to win with 0.0 handicap.
