Spain take on the visitors Italy in the semifinal match of UEFA Nations League playoffs. The match will be played on Thursday, June 15th at De Grolsch Veste (Enschede).
It's hard to say who has a better chance of winning this match. We don't really know the current form of the players from both teams and their mindset for this friendly tournament called the UEFA Nations League. Nevertheless, I slightly lean towards the Spanish team. Not because they are very strong, but probably because of their opponent. "La Roja" at least participated in the last World Cup and made it out of the group stage. They did lose to the surprise package of the tournament, Morocco, in the playoffs. In the Euro 2024 qualifiers, they played two matches: one where they convincingly defeated Norway, and another where they were defeated by Scotland. The Spanish team lacks stability, but so does their opponent.
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The Italians are currently going through a difficult period and have already missed out on two major tournaments. They sensationally lost to Macedonia in the playoffs and failed to qualify for the World Cup in Qatar. In the current UEFA Nations League campaign, they have looked decent. However, they did suffer a defeat to Germany (2-5) and lost a friendly match against Austria (0-2). In the Euro 2024 qualifiers, they defeated Malta (as expected) but also lost 1-2 while playing with a man down. The final stage of the Nations League is taking place in the Netherlands, which means both teams will be playing on neutral ground. In this tournament, Spain collected 7 out of 9 possible points in their away matches, while Italy won once, lost once, and drew once against their opponents.
Overall, I expect a fairly evenly matched game, where the chances of success are 50-50. However, I give a slight preference to the potential hosts. Italy hasn't had much success against this opponent. After their victory over "La Roja" in Euro 2016, the Italian national team played four more matches against Spain. First, two matches in the World Cup 2018 qualifiers, where they only managed to earn one point: 1-1 and 0-3. Then, in the semifinals of the European Championship, they secured a victory but only in a penalty shootout. After that, they also lost to Spain in the semifinals of the 2021 Nations League, and it happened on their home turf (1-2). I anticipate a tense match as both teams have their problems. However, I still have more faith in "La Furia Roja" and I'm leaning towards the handicap (0) for Castillo's team.
Prediction for the match: Spain to win with 0.0 handicap.
