Shanghai SIPG hosts Shanghai Shenhua in round 16 of Chinese Super League. The match will be played on Saturday, July 6th atShanghai Stadium (Shanghai)
Shanghai SIPG is one of the leaders of the Chinese Super League: the team is in third place, while being the reigning champion. Shanghai SIPG has 37 points after 15 matches played in the current championship. If we talk about the rightfulness of their results, everything is quite nice (there is no bias towards overperforming or underperforming): according to GD-xGD, Shanghai SIPG has 2.2 - quite a good result, given that the team is in the lead (leaders usually overperform). Let us analyze their game in the attack: Shanghai SIPG scored 28 goals, while their xG = 24.5. As for the quality of their own shots, they look pretty good: xG/Sh = 0.15 - the best fixture in the league. In defense, Shanghai SIPG is underperforming: they allowed 12 goals, while their xGA = 10.7. The quality of the shots delivered by rivals is also quite good: xGA/Sh = 0.06 (Shanghai SIPG shares second place with a number of teams; only Beijing Guoan is better, which leads the championship largely due to its excellent positional defense).
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Shanghai Shenhua can be called one of the main losers of the Chinese Championship (literally): it shares 12th, 13th and 14th places with Shenzhen and Hebei China Fortune, while it has no luck. Well, it is just wild. First, let us see why I decided this: according to GD-xGD, Shanghai Shenhua already have -8.7 (only Hebei China Fortune is unluckier). As for the game in attack, Shanghai Shenhua looks, frankly, so-so: they scored 17 goals for the whole season (xG = 17.8). They delivered not very dangerous shots (on average): xG / Sh = 0.09 is one of the worst results in the league. But in defense... Shanghai Shenhua allowed 26 goals for the whole season, and this is despite the fact that their xGA = 18.1! That is, the entire Shanghai Shenhua underperforming results from the lack of luck in defense. They do not allow delivering dangerous shots on their goal: xGA/Sh = 0.09 (5th place in the league), and on average, they allow creating not many dangerous attempts in 90 minutes: xGA90 = 1.15 (6th place in the league).
Yes, we have to admit that Shanghai SIPG has perfect statistics – the team is in the top three of the championship for a good reason. But I would also advise you not to forget that Shanghai Shenhua has a very good defense; the team has problems not because of its quality, but because of bad luck (otherwise it is simply impossible to explain such anomalies). Shanghai Shenhua plays according to the 3-5-2 scheme, and it can pose a certain threat to the Shanghai SIPG, because Shanghai SIPG plays according to the 3-4-3 scheme. Such a formation offers some advantages namely Shanghai Shenhua. Of course, I could have just bet on the Shanghai SIPG victory, but, realizing that Shanghai Shenhua has a pretty good (albeit unlucky) defense, I chose a +1.5 handicap.
Prediction for the match: Shanghai Shenhua to win with +1.5 handicap
