Sao Paulo take on the visitors Athletico Paranaense in the round 11 match of Brazilian Serie A. The match will be played on Thursday, June 22nd at Estádio do Morumbi (Sao Paulo).
Yes, due to the home field advantage, São Paulo is probably considered the favorite in this match. However, it's not so obvious that the odds for the hosts should be lower than 2.0. After ten rounds of the championship, Dorival Junior's team is currently in eighth place in the table, with one point less than their opponent. But the main issue is that they concede more goals on average per game (11 goals in 10 matches). In their two previous league matches, São Paulo not only conceded but also suffered defeats against Palmeiras (0-2) and Grêmio (1-2). Before that, although the results were better, the team didn't keep a clean sheet: victories against Goiás (2-1) and Vasco da Gama-RJ (4-2), and a draw against Corinthians-SP (1-1).
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I believe that Athletico Paranaense players can score at least once against São Paulo, who are currently positioned higher than their opponent in the table, in seventh place. In ten championship matches, the team has scored 14 goals, which is an average of more than one goal per game. In the last five rounds, Athletico Paranaense only left the field without scoring once. In the other four matches, they scored regardless of the result: a defeat against Grêmio (1-2), a draw against Atlético Mineiro (2-2), and victories against Botafogo (1-0) and Coritiba (3-2). The defense of the upcoming opponent is far from ideal. It is well within the capabilities of the "red-and-black" team to breach it at least once.
In this match, bookmakers give preference to the home team, setting the odds for their victory below 2.0. The figure for the success of the guests is above 4.0. Personally, I see a match between two relatively equal teams. This is evident from the current season's league table, where the opponents have almost the same number of points at the moment (Athletico even has one more point). The head-to-head statistics also show that the teams play with occasional success. I wouldn't be surprised if the guests manage to secure at least a draw here. However, I will take a slightly safer bet in my opinion. I will simply believe in a goal from Athletico Paranaense, who have managed to disappoint São Paulo at least once in three out of the last five direct clashes.
Prediction for the match: Athletico Paranaense to score – yes.
