San Marino take on the visitors Slovenia in the round 6 match of UEFA Euro-2024 qualification. The match will be played on Sunday, September 10th at San Marino Stadium (Serravalle).
San Marino are following its usual style in this qualification campaign. They are halfway through with 5 matches played, yet they haven't scored any goals, and they have no points to their name either. On a somewhat positive note, San Marino have started conceding slightly fewer goals. At the beginning of the qualification, they even managed to avoid major defeats, losing 0-2 to the Irish and 0-2 to the Slovenians. Then, as they faced stronger opponents like the Finns and the Danes, the defeats became more noticeable. In the upcoming match, nothing significant will change, and San Marino will most likely lose, probably without scoring. However, their opponent won't be as attacking as the previous ones. Even on their own turf, the Slovenians only managed to beat San Marino 2-0. In an away match, they probably won't inflict a crushing defeat on the hosts.
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Four teams in the group are currently within a 3-point distance, and the Slovenians are among them, aiming for a top-two finish. In their first September match, the Slovenians left no room for doubt by defeating Northern Ireland. Their task is pretty straightforward now: just go to San Marino and secure 3 points. Will Slovenia attempt to score many goals here? Most likely not, as the team rarely indulges its fans with significant victories. In March, San Marino won 2-0 at home, and the first goal was only scored in the second half. Therefore, I lean towards Slovenia winning again, probably with a score of 2-0, maybe 3-0 at most.
Interestingly, my bet will be on San Marino this time. When evaluating the likelihood of a 4-0 scoreline or higher in favor of Slovenia, the probability that it won't happen is higher. Slovenia is not the team that seeks to demolish its opponents. So, I'll consider betting on San Marino with a +3.5 handicap.
Prediction for the match: San Marino to with +3.5 handicap.