Salernitana hosts Venezia in the first leg of Italian Serie B play-out finals. The match will be played on Wednesday, June 5th at Stadio Arechi (Salerno)
If we proceed from the last meetings of the hosts, it seems that the bet simply lies on the surface. Firstly, Salernitana never won Venezia in the head-to-head matches of the current season, and secondly, it only miraculously retained the right to play in the play-outs and didn’t relegate directly. Salernitana had suffered five defeats in a row and earned only four points in 12 last rounds. Yes, the team had eight home wins in the season and relatively good scoring. Still, I would rather consider the home team’s chances as drawn; it will be very difficult to beat the opponent.
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Venezia could have survived. But apparently, Livorno simply had a bit more money and despite the draws of the last rounds, the current visitors still had to participate in play-outs. I would not call their defense bad; Venezia conceded about the same amount of goals as the leaders. The trouble is that the team doesn’t have a scoring striker; only obvious outsiders scored less in Serie B. Still, goals are not the main things in the play-outs; the main thing is to play reliably in defense.
We will not see many goals. Chance of a draw is very high. Most likely, we are waiting for zeros. And Salernitana itself is not able to score more than one. Everything will be decided in the second leg. The visitors will try to play defense first. By the way, they lost only three of 11 last rounds.
Prediction for the match: Venezia to win +0.5 handicap
