Portugal take on the visitors Slovakia in the round 7 match of group stage of UEFA Euro-2024 qualification. The match will be played on Friday, October 13th at Estádio do Dragão (Porto).
With six wins in six matches in the qualifying campaign for Euro 2024, Portugal confidently tops their group. Yes, the European Brazilians scored 24 goals in these six games. However, 15 of those goals were against Luxembourg (in two matches), and four were scored against Liechtenstein. They also managed to score three against Bosnia in a home match. But currently, Slovakia is a much stronger national team than the Balkans, especially in terms of defense. Therefore, I don't expect Portugal to score three goals in the upcoming match. In their previous encounter, Portugal scored only one goal against Slovakia, and they also defeated Iceland with a score of 1-0. The chosen team has been quite inconsistent in creating and converting their chances in this qualifying cycle.
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Slovakia is currently second in their group. They are five points behind Portugal and three points ahead of Luxembourg, who are the main competitors for the second-place spot. Bosnia and Herzegovina and Iceland are already significantly behind. However, it's too early for Slovakia to relax. They are proficient in defense and have conceded only once in five matches, when they defeated Iceland 2-1 away. In the other four matches, they kept clean sheets with wins against Liechtenstein (3-0 and 1-0), Bosnia and Herzegovina (2-0), and a draw against Luxembourg (0-0).
I believe that even in an away match against a strong opponent like Portugal, Slovakia has a good chance to defend quite well. The Falcons are currently a solid team, and failing to secure the second spot in such a competitive qualifying group would be considered a disappointment. In September, Portugal defeated Slovakia with just one goal, scored by Bruno Fernandes at the end of the first half. The expected goals (xG) for both teams were roughly equal: 1.02 for Portugal and 0.93 for Slovakia. I don't expect more than two goals from the favorite in this match. The prediction is Portugal to score under 2.5 goal.
Prediction for the match: Portugal to score under 2.5 goal.
